As the conflict between Iran and the Israeli occupation escalates, global anxiety is mounting over a scenario many consider catastrophic: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most vital oil transit chokepoint.
Amid intensifying military aggression by Israel, Iran is reportedly weighing the use of the strategic waterway as a pressure card. The possibility of mining or blockading the strait is now being openly considered as a retaliatory option, particularly if the United States officially joins the Israeli offensive.
Iran Considers Hormuz Closure Amid Israeli Attacks
On Friday, Israel—with direct U.S. backing—launched a wide-scale assault on Iranian territory, targeting residential areas, nuclear facilities, missile bases, and assassinating key Iranian military and nuclear figures. The initial toll: 224 killed and 1,277 injured.
Iran responded with a barrage of ballistic missile and drone strikes, killing at least 24 and wounding hundreds more, alongside significant infrastructure damage.
For the first time, Iranian officials confirmed that shutting down the Strait of Hormuz is under serious review. Senior IRGC commander General Ismail Qaani told Tasnim News Agency that “all options are on the table”, and Tehran will act decisively if provoked further.
Where Is the Strait of Hormuz and Why Does It Matter?
The Strait of Hormuz lies between Iran (north) and the UAE and Oman (south). It connects the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, serving as the primary conduit for global oil shipments.
- Width: ~50 km (34 km at its narrowest)
- Depth: ~60 metres
- Daily transit: ~20–30 oil tankers
- Carries: ~40% of seaborne oil & 22% of key global commodities
According to Bloomberg, about 16.5 million barrels per day of oil and condensates passed through the Strait in 2024 alone.
Notably:
- Asia receives 80% of oil exports through Hormuz (China, India, Japan, South Korea)
- China’s daily imports: ~11.2 million barrels (5M via the Gulf)
- U.S. still imports ~700,000 barrels/day from the region
- Major exporters using Hormuz: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and Iran itself
This makes Hormuz indispensable to global energy security. A closure would cripple both oil and LNG exports, especially from Qatar, which supplies over one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas.
Iran’s Naval Capability: Mines, Submarines, and Threat Scenarios
Reports suggest Iran could deploy up to 6,000 naval mines, with the ability to lay 100 per day, effectively choking off access to the Strait within days. Iranian Kilo-class submarines, capable of long-term operations, enhance this strategic leverage.
A report by Newspice UK noted that no international force could quickly clear such mines, and that insurers would immediately withdraw coverage, halting commercial shipping entirely.
Iran has never officially closed Hormuz, though in 2011 it threatened to do so in response to U.S.-EU sanctions. More recently, in April 2024, Iran’s IRGC seized an Israel-linked cargo vessel in the Strait after suspected Israeli strikes on its consulate in Syria.
Economic Fallout: Oil Prices, Global Inflation, and Strategic Risks
Experts agree that even partial disruption of Hormuz would be economically devastating.
- Dr. Amer Al-Shobaki, international energy economist, told Anadolu Agency that oil prices would instantly surpass $100/barrel, potentially reaching $130 or more, especially if the Bab al-Mandeb strait (targeted by Yemen’s Houthis) is also affected.
- Inflation would surge globally, forcing central banks—including the U.S. Federal Reserve—to rethink monetary policy.
- A full shutdown could push Brent crude prices to $150, or even $200, but OPEC Gulf nations wouldn’t benefit, as exports would be blocked.
Military Repercussions and Regional War Prospects
Military analysts warn that closure of the Strait would trigger direct intervention by global powers.
- General Qassem Mahmoud, former Jordanian Deputy Chief of Staff, stated: “Shutting down a strategic waterway like Hormuz constitutes a legitimate trigger for military response under international law.”
- He added that while Iran can close Hormuz, it may instead use its allies (e.g., the Houthis) to indirectly escalate pressure.
Operational control, missile deployment, or drone warfare around Hormuz—not just mines—could serve Iran’s objectives if the U.S. escalates militarily.
Energy Security and Geopolitical Shifts
According to Dr. Sadiq Al-Rikabi, Director of Energy Research at the Global Development Center in London:
“A mined or blocked Strait would be more than a military move—it would redefine global energy policy.”
He warned of:
- LNG price spikes
- Shipping disruptions
- Global inflation
- Potential recessions in major economies
Al-Rikabi urged Europe and Asia to diversify energy sources, accelerate renewables, and deploy urgent diplomatic mediation to prevent regional war.
A New Era of Energy Warfare?
With Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran locked in a high-stakes showdown, the world teeters on the edge of a historic energy crisis. The Strait of Hormuz stands as the final domino. Its closure could usher in not just a regional war, but a global economic shockwave—redefining security, energy, and diplomacy for years to come.
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