The Israeli-Iranian war has reached a critical and uncertain stage, raising pressing questions about Iran’s regional and international allies and the likelihood of their involvement, particularly in the event of direct U.S. intervention, according to analysts.
U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated threats to unprecedented levels, openly calling for Iran’s unconditional surrender and even threatening to assassinate the country’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, stating that the United States knows where he resides.
Meanwhile, signals have intensified, suggesting Trump may soon approve direct U.S. military involvement in the war, particularly to destroy Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility.
The United States has already deployed several strategic military assets to the region or positioned them nearby, including the long-range B-52 strategic bombers, according to American media reports.
Escalation Options and Strategic Patience
Should the United States enter the war directly, Iran would likely retaliate by targeting numerous American interests in the region, particularly U.S. military bases in Iraq and the Arabian Gulf, according to Dr. Luay al-Mukhtar, senior researcher at Al Jazeera Centre for Studies.
However, al-Mukhtar added that striking these bases would not be easy due to their strong missile defence systems. If Iran fails to directly damage those bases, it may resort to activating its regional proxies to strike broader American interests, including oil infrastructure.
According to al-Mukhtar, Iran will likely use its military power wisely and selectively, as its capabilities are still limited when compared to the unrestricted U.S. support for Israel. He also noted that the destruction of a state with Iran’s deep historical and geopolitical roots would not be easily achieved.
Iran Will Not Surrender
Dr. Fatima Al-Samadi, an Iran affairs specialist at Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, does not believe Iran is weak enough to capitulate to Trump’s demands for surrender. She noted that Iran had already rejected multiple diplomatic messages over the past two days from regional and European intermediaries, all of which suggested surrender in exchange for renewed negotiations.
According to Al-Samadi, surrender is not an option—Iran will not accept today what it previously rejected and sacrificed heavily for in terms of blood, scientists, and sovereignty. Moreover, Iran still has reliable allies in the region who will not abandon it.
Among these allies are Iraqi and Afghan Shiite militias, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, who have already announced their intention to join the war in support of Iran, just as they joined the war on Gaza in defence of the Palestinian people. Hezbollah in Lebanon also remains a significant player, and Al-Samadi doubts that it has been eliminated from the equation.
Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the “Bejar” Operation
Hezbollah has sustained significant losses as a result of Israeli strikes in retaliation for its support of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza. Israel successfully assassinated senior Hezbollah leaders, including its former Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and key aides, and conducted a large-scale operation—known as the “Bejar” operation—that targeted thousands of Hezbollah fighters.
As a result, Hezbollah was forced to withdraw from border areas under international and regional pressure, and the Lebanese state claimed it had taken control of a substantial portion of the group’s weapons.
Nevertheless, Al-Samadi acknowledged that while Iran’s allies have suffered setbacks, they have not been weakened to the extent some imagine—particularly the Houthis, who she believes have not yet exhausted their full capabilities.
The Houthis continued to launch missiles toward Israel to pressure Tel Aviv into ending its aggression on Gaza, ongoing since October 2023. Their missiles also targeted numerous vessels in the Red Sea that were en route to Israeli ports.
The Houthis were subjected to dozens of missile strikes by Israel and the United States, but an agreement was eventually reached between Washington and the group: in exchange for halting attacks on American vessels, the U.S. would cease its strikes on Houthi positions.
Iraqi Militias and the Regional Equation
Iraqi militias have not yet formally entered the war, but Al-Samadi maintains that they remain part of Iran’s strategic toolkit, just as Hezbollah has not been entirely removed from the military landscape. These actors remain important cards in Iran’s hand.
Al-Samadi concluded that escalating a full-scale war with Iran would come at a global cost, not just a regional one. Any expansion would significantly disrupt global energy flows, with major consequences for countries like China, which relies heavily on Gulf oil.
She added that American military bases surrounding Iran in the Gulf and Central Asia are not immune. Despite their defensive capabilities, they remain within Iran’s reach. Tehran had previously demonstrated this with its missile strike on Ain al-Assad Airbase in Iraq, sending a clear message of deterrence.
International Support Has Fallen Short
According to al-Mukhtar, Iran’s global allies—such as Russia, China, and Pakistan—have so far failed to provide the expected level of support. China has remained silent, showing no real commitment to defending its strategic economic interests with Iran, particularly the Belt and Road Initiative.
Al-Mukhtar warned that if Iran and its regional networks are dismantled, India’s Mumbai Corridor could emerge as a more viable alternative to China’s Belt and Road—effectively sidelining Beijing’s strategic vision for the region.
As for Russia, its response has been limited to condemnations and calls for negotiations, despite Iran’s unwavering support during the Ukraine war, including the provision of Shahed drones that significantly aided Moscow’s military operations. Al-Mukhtar noted that Iran paid a steep political price for this support, especially in its diplomatic relations with Europe.
He concluded that Iran has received only rhetorical and media support in response to Israeli aggression, not concrete military backing. Even Pakistan, whose Defence Minister declared that the country stands with Iran “with all its strength,” quickly walked back those remarks, clarifying that support would be diplomatic only.
Therefore, al-Mukhtar believes that it is Iran’s regional networks—not its international allies—who are most likely to mobilise in support of Tehran against the aggression by Israel and, potentially, the United States.
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