The Italian outlet Libero Quotidiano has published a report highlighting the critical global importance of the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as the “bottleneck of global energy”. More than 20 million barrels of oil and vast quantities of gas pass through it daily, making it one of the most fragile strategic points on Earth—especially in light of Iran’s threats of a maritime response to Israeli aggression.
According to the report (translated by Arabi21), Hormuz Island, which gives its name to the strait, is only 42 square kilometres in size, with a population of around 3,000 people. It lacks local vegetation and receives drinking water via a pipeline from mainland Iran.
A Narrow Corridor of Global Impact
The strait itself has a unique elbow-like shape. At its widest, it spans about 60 kilometres, narrowing to just 30 kilometres at its tightest point—between mainland Iran and the Musandam Peninsula, an Omani exclave surrounded by UAE territory.
This narrow passage is the only navigable route connecting the Persian Gulf (often called the Arabian Gulf in Arab contexts) to the Gulf of Oman, which leads onward to the open waters of the Indian Ocean.
The report noted that nearly 30% of global oil production originates along the Persian Gulf’s shores, where up to 65% of the world’s known oil reserves are located.
A Theatre of Power: Oil, Gas, and Bases
Bordering the Persian Gulf are some of the world’s top gas producers—Iran on the northern coast, and on the southern side: Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. The region is also home to numerous U.S. military bases, highlighting its centrality to both energy and geopolitics.
If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes, the report warns, no fewer than 20 million barrels per day would be cut off, triggering devastating global economic consequences.
Asymmetric Warfare and Oil Shock Risks
According to the Financial Times, Iran could resort to asymmetric warfare by disrupting or closing the strait, a threat Tehran has raised in the past in response to potential military aggression. Such a move would sever vital shipping lanes between Iran and its Gulf neighbours.
Following Israel’s assault on Iranian territory, one of the first economic impacts was a sharp rise in oil prices. The price of Brent crude surpassed $74 per barrel, marking a 7% increase—the steepest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
J.P. Morgan analysts suggest that if Iran shuts the strait, oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel, while other estimates place the figure at $200 per barrel or higher.
LNG, China, and the Global Inflation Chain
The Strait of Hormuz is also a major route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, especially from Qatar to destinations in Europe and Asia, with China being a key buyer. China currently imports around 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day.
If these shipments are interrupted, China would be forced to seek alternative sources at higher costs, triggering a ripple effect on global inflation, according to the report.
Historical Precedent: Threats and Naval Escorts
Despite frequent threats, the Strait of Hormuz has never been officially closed, even during devastating wars along its shores—such as the Iran-Iraq War and the Gulf War.
Between 1987 and 1988, both Iran and Iraq began targeting neutral maritime traffic in an effort to break the battlefield stalemate, using armed speedboats and naval mines. In response, Western powers deployed warships to escort oil tankers, leading to one of the most militarised periods in the strait’s history.
At that time, the European Union established a joint naval command under the Western European Union (WEU), based in London, to coordinate European military operations and collaborate with the United States.
Operation Gulf One: The Forgotten Naval Conflict
The report concludes by recalling that alongside Britain, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium, Italy also contributed warships under Operation Gulf One, following an incident in which the Italian container ship “Jolly Rubino” was attacked by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps off Farsi Island on the night of September 2–3, 1987, injuring several crew members.
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