In a sudden and unexpected move, the United States has begun evacuating some of its diplomatic missions across the Middle East, citing “security threats.” This step has reignited widespread speculation about the future of the region, especially amid growing tensions over Iran’s nuclear file.
And so, the urgent question arises:
Has the region truly entered the countdown to a full-scale war?
Evacuations as a Red Flag
According to the Associated Press, American officials confirmed that the State Department is preparing to order all non-essential staff and their families to leave U.S. embassies in Baghdad, Manama, and Kuwait, due to escalating security threats.
Pentagon officials also acknowledged that U.S. Central Command is closely monitoring developments in the region.
“The safety of our personnel and their families remains a top priority,” they stated. “CENTCOM is coordinating with the State Department, our allies, and regional partners to ensure readiness.”
CNN also reported that both the State and Defence Departments have made extensive efforts to facilitate the departure of non-essential personnel from the region.
Trump: Firm on Iran, But Cautious
Former U.S. President Donald Trump remarked that the decision to relocate American personnel was due to the region being “dangerous,” while firmly reiterating:
“Iran must never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon.”
Speaking to journalists during a film screening at the Kennedy Center in Washington, Trump was vague about the details of the evacuation, simply saying:
“You’ll see.”
Yet he added with confidence:
“More than ever, I believe the U.S. military will achieve great glory in the days to come.”
Netanyahu: A Dangerous Variable
The Washington Post, citing insider sources, revealed that U.S. intelligence agencies are on high alert over a potential Israeli strike on Iran. American embassies and military bases across the region have been placed on heightened alert.
A regional diplomat described the situation as
“the most dangerous it has ever been.”
The concern, according to the report, is that Israel may act unilaterally against Iran without Washington’s approval — putting the entire region on the brink.
A Heated Prelude
Recent developments only deepen the sense of looming conflict:
- Trump repeatedly warned Iran against rejecting a nuclear deal that prevents it from developing weapons of mass destruction.
- In a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump admitted the difficulty of negotiations but still rejected a military strike on Iran’s facilities (Israel Hayom).
- Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reaffirmed Tehran’s position: “We will never surrender to American arrogance. We will not dismantle our nuclear industry, nor seek anyone’s permission to conduct scientific research.”
He rebuked the West’s demands, asking:
“Who are they to demand we dismantle our entire nuclear program?”
Iran’s Dual Strategy: Threat and Diplomacy
A Negotiation Tactic
Iran’s delegation to the United Nations issued a bold statement:
“CENTCOM’s legacy of arming aggressors and enabling Israeli crimes strips it of any credibility to speak of peace or nuclear non-proliferation.”
They stressed that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons, and that U.S. militarisation only fuels regional instability.
An Iranian official added the American manoeuvres are more psychological pressure than concrete action.
Ready to Respond
The New York Times cited an Iranian military official confirming that senior commanders have already convened to prepare for a possible Israeli strike.
The plan, he said, includes an immediate counterattack on Israel using hundreds of ballistic missiles.
Meanwhile, Iranian Defense Minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that:
“If negotiations fail or conflict breaks out, U.S. bases in the region will be targeted without hesitation.”
He added:
“Their losses will far exceed ours. All U.S. military bases are within our range — and we will strike them in every host country if provoked.”
Target Locked: Intelligence Breakthrough
Just days ago, Tehran revealed it had obtained thousands of classified documents about Israel’s nuclear facilities, confirming it delayed the announcement to safely transfer the material to Iran.
- Iran’s Intelligence Service described the operation as “the largest intelligence strike in history” against Israel.
- These sensitive materials reportedly include photos, blueprints, and videos, requiring months to fully process.
- IRGC Commander Hossein Salami stated that these files include military and nuclear secrets, and will make Iran’s missile program even more precise.
He called it a “fatal blow” to Israel’s so-called intelligence superiority.
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War or Breakthrough?
Political analyst Dr. Liqaa Makki believes the countdown toward confrontation has already begun.
Only a dramatic shift in negotiations — particularly on uranium enrichment — can stop it.
He wrote on X:
“The recent leaks about Iran’s so-called ‘Project Kawir’ leave little room for diplomatic optimism unless Tehran offers real, substantial concessions.”
Meanwhile, The Times (UK) reported that Iran has armed its Iraqi allies with ballistic missiles and drones, anticipating an Israeli strike.
Among the weapons reportedly smuggled are:
- Quds 351 cruise missiles
- Jamal 69 short-range ballistic missiles
These pose a major challenge to any attempts to neutralise Iran’s strategic depth.
Re-Arming for Confrontation
The Wall Street Journal revealed that Iran has recently requested thousands of tons of ballistic missile components from China to rebuild its missile arsenal and reinforce its allies, especially the Houthis in Yemen and Iraqi militias.
The shipment includes ammonium perchlorate, used in solid-fuel rockets.
Estimates say the requested quantity is enough to produce around 800 ballistic missiles.
Fifth Round of Talks: A Shaky Encounter
Last month’s nuclear negotiations in Rome nearly collapsed.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry source said the fifth round was on the brink of failure — saved only by Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi’s last-minute intervention.
- U.S. envoy Steve Whitcoff demanded Iran halt uranium enrichment, warning that continued enrichment would “render negotiations pointless.”
- Whitcoff also threatened to destroy Iran’s enrichment facilities if Israel’s concerns weren’t addressed — and hinted Israel might act unilaterally if talks failed.
In response, Iranian chief negotiator Abbas Araqchi reportedly handed over a dossier of Israeli nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons sites, compiled by Iranian intelligence.
He warned:
“If Tel Aviv attacks, Tehran will retaliate decisively.”
Araqchi concluded:
“Iran does not want war. But Trump, in his Nobel Prize ambitions, must learn from his past failures — particularly his clash with the Yemeni Ansarullah.”
He also warned:
“If the U.S. continues enabling Netanyahu’s madness, then every U.S. base in the region will be fair game.”
A Glimpse of De-escalation?
Despite earlier tensions, a sixth negotiation round now appears possible.
A U.S. official told Reuters that Steve Whitcoff will meet Abbas Araqchi in Muscat this Sunday to discuss Iran’s response to America’s latest proposal.
According to Axios, Iran is suggesting the creation of a regional uranium enrichment consortium, potentially headquartered in Iran or another neighbouring country, under IAEA supervision.
A Foreign Ministry source confirmed that:
- Iran is open to gradually reducing enrichment levels in tandem with the new consortium’s launch.
- However, Tehran reserves the right to resume full enrichment if the facility fails to meet its needs.
The Iranian proposal ensures:
- Joint regional management, with no single country holding unilateral control.
- Strict peaceful-use guarantees for all uranium produced.
