Despite the ceasefire agreement signed between the occupying state and Lebanon in November, Israeli voices are intensifying calls to reconsider the future of the northern border, which has become a volatile strategic front — especially following the escalation after the October 7, 2023 attack.
Former Mossad official Oded Ailam revealed what he described as “deep-rooted failures” in the current border arrangements, including UN Resolution 1701 and the ineffective UNIFIL forces, which he claims have enabled Hezbollah’s consolidation as a dominant military power in southern Lebanon. This, he argues, threatens northern Israeli settlements.
Based on what he described as the “gains” of Israel’s ongoing military campaign, Ailam proposed a new border model involving the establishment of an expanded demilitarised buffer zone under a U.S.-led multinational force, while preserving Israel’s “freedom of action” until full regional stability is achieved.
Writing in an article for the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and Security, Ailam asserted:
“Israel’s military success against Hezbollah in the current war presents a unique opportunity for the Lebanese government, with international backing, to reclaim sovereignty in the south. The October 7 attack and the subsequent war exposed not only the fragility of Israel’s southern borders with Gaza, but also highlighted the intensifying threats along its northern frontier with Lebanon.”
Ailam explained that the violent clashes with Hezbollah — including massive rocket barrages, drone operations, and ground maneuvers — led to the mass evacuation of northern settlements. These events, he claims, proved the total collapse of the current security framework based on UN Resolution 1701. The so-called “Blue Line”, once seen as a disengagement boundary, has now become an active front line.
The strategic vulnerability of settlements like Metula, Kiryat Shmona, Shlomi, and Manara was laid bare. Since October 2023, these areas have endured daily attacks from anti-tank missiles, short-range rockets, mortars, and drones, causing severe property damage, disrupting vital infrastructure, and paralysing civilian life. The evacuation of tens of thousands of settlers for months dealt a symbolic blow to the Zionist entity’s sovereignty and highlighted critical failures in its northern defense doctrine.
According to Ailam, the Israeli regime entered the northern war determined not to revert to the pre-October 7 status quo. He argues that the campaign has achieved significant military objectives, including pushing Hezbollah away from the border, damaging its military capabilities, and weakening its influence across Lebanon — though not eliminating the group entirely.
Nonetheless, he claims that this so-called “victory” has produced a new strategic reality with far-reaching legal and political implications, necessitating radical changes to existing security arrangements.
Ailam proposed a phased plan to reshape the border, beginning with the creation of a new security reality that ensures Israel’s freedom to operate militarily inside Lebanon. This includes forcing Hezbollah and its infrastructure deep beyond the current frontier — at minimum past the Awali River — and destroying its covert networks and strategic weapons caches throughout Lebanon. The ultimate goal: establishing a credible alternative security mechanism that prevents Hezbollah from reestablishing its presence.
In the second phase, Ailam suggests creating a fully demilitarised zone under multinational supervision, stretching well beyond the Blue Line to at least the Litani River and possibly further into geostrategic terrain. This zone would be completely devoid of any armed presence, except for the Lebanese Army and a U.S.-led multinational force that includes Gulf states, Jordan, and Egypt, in parallel with a multi-layered Israeli defense belt inside the occupied territories.
