A recent report by the French newspaper Le Monde explored a provocative scenario presented by a German military strategist, warning of a potential Russian attack on the Estonian city of Narva by 2028. The report is designed to sound the alarm and alert Western public opinion to the strategic risks brewing on Europe’s eastern frontier.
According to Le Monde, Narva is a small Estonian city located in the far northeast of Europe, right on the border with Russia. The Narva River separates the two nations, and on either bank stand two towering historical fortresses — silent witnesses to centuries of regional tension and rivalry.
The report notes that Narva lost its symbolic status as NATO’s final defensive outpost following Finland’s accession to NATO in 2023, yet it remains a central feature in multiple strategic war-gaming scenarios anticipating a confrontation between Moscow and the West.
One key reason for Narva’s inclusion in such scenarios is demographic: nearly one-third of its residents hold Russian passports, leading some analysts to consider it a potential “fifth column” that could be leveraged in case of conflict.
The Next War
In his new book, The Next War, military analyst and professor of international politics at Bundeswehr University in Munich, Carlo Masala, presents a scenario involving a Russian attack on Finland in 2028. Citing Kremlin insiders, the book suggests that the true goal of such a move would be to test NATO’s readiness to respond to a gradual Russian advance on European soil.
While the hypothetical invasion of the Baltic states might appear to aim at seizing territory — especially in linking Russia to its exclave Kaliningrad via Lithuania — the ultimate purpose, the report argues, would likely be political rather than purely military. Moscow could be betting that such a move would trigger panic in Europe and expose fractures within the NATO alliance.
The War Machine
Some Western observers still view the idea of a direct Russian military assault on a NATO member as far-fetched and unrealistic. Yet Le Monde warns this assumption could be dangerous.
Should Russia fail to achieve decisive gains in Ukraine or face a prolonged stalemate, the Kremlin might opt for retaliation through escalation.
Conversely, should the international community accept Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories, and should pressure on Kyiv mount, Moscow’s ambitions may grow — expanding its strategic horizon far beyond Ukraine.
The report notes that Russia’s military has been significantly strained by the Ukraine war, having gained less than 1% of Ukrainian territory since January 2024 despite heavy losses.
Yet Masala argues that Russia does not wait for full military recovery to strike. Historically, Moscow has launched wars roughly every 20 to 25 years. President Vladimir Putin, already responsible for five military interventions — Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, Syria, and Ukraine — has transformed Russia into a perpetually mobilised war machine.
In 1700, Narva witnessed one of the most significant battles in European history, where Sweden, allied with Poland, Ukrainian Cossacks, and the Ottoman Empire, dealt a crushing defeat to Russia. That battle marked the beginning of the Great Northern War, which ended in 1721 with the victory of Tsar Peter the Great, cementing Russia’s rise as a major European power.
In 2022, Vladimir Putin resurrected this historical narrative, citing Peter’s conquests in the Baltics as a mere “restoration of rightful Russian lands,” and ominously adding:
“It seems now it is our turn to reclaim what is ours.”
Masala’s Message
Masala’s warning comes at a time of growing uncertainty over America’s commitment to Europe’s defence.
In the German strategist’s scenario, the President of the United States openly refuses to engage, reportedly declaring:
“I will not risk World War III for a small Estonian city.”
If Narva were to come under Russian attack, Estonia would be left relying on British and French troops stationed at Tapa military base, about 100 km away.
Le Monde concludes with a stern warning: Europe must make it clear to Moscow that any assault — no matter how small — on its territory will be met with an immediate and decisive response. This would mark a test unlike any the continent has faced in modern times.
