Despite Netanyahu’s efforts to project an image of unity and strength, those familiar with the internal dynamics of his government understand that its survival until now is nothing short of unusual. Beneath the surface lies a coalition hanging by a thread—fragile, fragmented, and susceptible to collapse.
While many political observers point to Israel’s brutal war on Gaza as the trigger likely to bring down this government—especially if extremist partners like Smotrich or Ben Gvir withdraw in protest of a ceasefire—there’s a more dangerous player in the mix: Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Haredi parties. These religious factions, often overlooked, may be the real force capable of shattering the coalition and sparking an even deeper rupture within Israeli society itself.
The Rise of the Haredim
The Haredim represent Israel’s traditional religious sector, viewing the state’s legitimacy as conditional on its adherence to Torah law. Today, they comprise over 13% of the total population, including Druze and Palestinian citizens of Israel, and nearly 17% of Israel’s Jewish population—a sharp rise from just 2.6% in 1948. According to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, they are projected to reach 35% of the Jewish population by 2059.
This growing influence is reflected in the Knesset, where the Haredi bloc holds 18 out of 120 seats, with Shas leading at 11 and United Torah Judaism (Yahadut HaTorah) holding 7.
Netanyahu’s coalition controls a slim 64-seat majority, including 32 from Likud, 14 from the Religious Zionism alliance (Smotrich and Ben Gvir), and the rest from Haredi parties. This means the withdrawal of the Haredim alone would be enough to bring down the entire government.
The Draft Crisis: A Red Line for the Haredim
While Religious Zionists loudly demand the continuation of the Gaza war and a ban on humanitarian aid, the Haredim are fixated on a different battleground: the draft exemption crisis.
For decades, Haredi youth have been exempt from military service, a policy that dates back to Israel’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, who spared 400 Haredim from enlistment to gain support from Torah scholars skeptical of a Zionist state. This exemption was meant to preserve religious institutions and present Israel as a “Jewish state” to the global Jewish diaspora.
The Haredim believe their role is not on the battlefield, but in studying and preserving the Torah, which they view as a sacred task that sustains life on Earth—including, ironically, the survival of Israel itself.
As Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, the Sephardic Chief Rabbi, once declared:
“Without the yeshivot (religious schools), the army would not have succeeded. The soldiers only prevail because of the people of the Torah.”
He even warned that if the state imposes compulsory military service on his community, they would leave Israel permanently.
A Threat Greater Than Hamas?
The Haredim have long benefited from Likud’s rule. Their demands were modest: preserve religious school funding and keep the draft exemptions intact. In return, they offered unwavering political loyalty.
But their growing disdain for secular Israelis is no secret. Haredim often describe secular Jews as “Hebrew-speaking heretics”. In 2023, Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldknopf (United Torah Judaism) appeared in a viral video chanting:
“We’d rather die than be drafted. We reject the rule of the heretics!”
In 2015, the right-wing government passed a law granting draft exemptions to Haredim, but Israel’s Supreme Court struck it down, citing “equality before the law.” This decision reignited tensions during Israel’s ongoing Gaza war, which has severely depleted IDF manpower and forced emergency reserve call-ups.
Now, both secular left- and right-wing Israelis demand mandatory Haredi conscription, arguing that it is unjust for soldiers to die defending those who contribute nothing to society—and in fact, despise it.
The Haredim, in turn, view this as a spiritual war between “people of the Torah” and “apostates”, between light and darkness. Calls to serve in the army are seen as efforts to secularise their youth and tear them away from divine duty.
The Internal War Nobody Is Talking About
Unlike other factions, the Haredim rarely issue ultimatums. But their silence masks a deeper revolt—a religious rejection of the state itself.
Their leaders now openly declare that death at the hands of Arabs is preferable to serving in a secular army, and some even claim they’d rather eat pork than live among secular Jews. Statements like
“There is no shared culture between us and secular Israelis,”expose an ever-widening gap—not just in politics, but in worldview.
This isn’t just a government problem. It’s a societal fracture. As IDF supporters attack yeshiva students, and rabbis curse the state’s legitimacy, more than 80% of Israel’s Jewish population is being labelled by the Haredim as spiritually misguided.
This mutual rejection could lead to street-level clashes, riots, and a total breakdown of civil order.
A Collapse Rooted from Within
When the Sephardic Chief Rabbi threatens mass emigration, it’s more than religious rhetoric—it’s a declaration of disbelief in the Zionist project. It reflects a core disconnect between the Haredim and the very idea of an Israeli nation-state.
This internal schism, more than Hamas rockets or Iranian drones, represents the most existential threat to Israel’s future.
If Haredi parties walk away from the coalition, Netanyahu’s government falls. But beyond that, the ideological war between religious and secular Jews is sowing the seeds of national disintegration—a future even Israeli analysts now predict with increasing alarm.
