What Does Trump Really Want in the Middle East?

In a revealing analysis published by Foreign Affairs, political science professor Marc Lynch explores U.S. President Donald Trump’s current visit to the Middle East—his first overseas trip in his second term. The tour includes three key U.S. allies: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Lynch argues that Trump’s visit is multifaceted, potentially aimed at securing massive arms deals, foreign investment in the U.S., and even personal financial gains through Gulf-linked investments in Trump real estate projects, crypto ventures, and private funds.

Trump’s Agenda: Iran, Oil, and Billion-Dollar Deals

According to the analysis, while the trip carries the usual optics of diplomacy and trade, many believe Trump is laying the groundwork for either war or diplomacy with Iran—both of which serve strategic and political ends. The article notes the volatile nature of Trump’s administration and internal disputes among advisers, which make any scenario—from nuclear deals to military confrontation—equally plausible.

Gulf leaders, who had high hopes for Trump’s second term, now find themselves in a state of confusion. Though they preferred Trump over Biden during his first term, they are increasingly unsure about his consistency, especially after a chaotic first 100 days.

Trump and Biden: Different Styles, Same Strategy

While Biden was cautious, Trump’s approach to conflict zones like Gaza and Yemen is described as more brutal and less restrained. Despite their stark differences in personality and predictability, both administrations share similar foreign policy structures, leaving Gulf rulers skeptical of U.S. commitments.

Trump’s inclusion of all three Gulf powers—unlike his 2017 visit which centred on Riyadh—is an attempt to avoid appearing partisan in the Gulf power struggle and project a unified strategic front.

Economically, Trump is reportedly eyeing a $100 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia and pushing for renewed Gulf investments in the U.S. Following his election, Mohammed bin Salman offered a potential $600 billion Saudi investment, though experts view it as largely symbolic due to current low oil prices and Saudi Arabia’s domestic financial demands.

Oil Politics and Personal Profits

According to The New York Times, Trump family businesses have already profited millions from deals linked to Gulf state-owned entities. Now, Trump is expected to pressure the Gulf to keep oil prices low, despite past tensions over OPEC+ decisions that hurt Biden politically and bolstered Russian oil revenue during sanctions.

But lower oil prices threaten Gulf budgets, particularly Saudi Arabia’s economic ambitions, forcing Gulf leaders into a difficult balance between appeasing Washington and protecting domestic stability.

Uncertain Gulf Strategy on Iran

Trump’s regional policy goals remain vague. Gulf leaders aren’t sure whether to prepare for war or peace with Iran. The recent dismissal of National Security Adviser Michael Waltz—a close coordinator with Israel on military planning against Iran and the Houthis—adds to the confusion.

During his 2017 visit, Gulf leaders embraced Trump’s anti-Iran stance, but after Iranian drone attacks on Saudi Aramco in 2019 and the Houthis’ strike on Abu Dhabi in 2022, confidence in the U.S. security umbrella has eroded. Gulf states now fear being left alone in any future war with Iran.

In response, countries like Saudi Arabia have pivoted to diplomacy, engaging in China-brokered negotiations with Tehran. While Gulf rulers won’t mourn a weakened Iran, they are far less convinced than Israel that a military strike on Tehran serves their interests. If Trump pushes for conflict, the Gulf will likely demand serious guarantees—including a formal U.S. defence treaty, advanced weapons, and financial incentives in exchange for public support.

Gaza, the Abraham Accords, and Arab Street Pressure

Trump views the Abraham Accords as a cornerstone of his foreign policy legacy. Under different circumstances, Saudi Arabia might have joined during this tour as a diplomatic victory. But Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza—which has left over 53,000 Palestinians dead, mostly women and children—makes public normalization politically toxic.

Arab rulers may not care deeply about Palestinians, but their populations do. Fearing a new wave of uprisings, regimes are monitoring public sentiment carefully. The massacre in Gaza has deepened Arab resentment toward Israel and the U.S., raising the political cost of normalization.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, if still interested in a deal, will likely demand a formal U.S. security guarantee, significant arms deals, and tangible progress toward Palestinian statehood—all of which Trump may be reluctant or unable to deliver.

Trump’s Gaza Vision and Regional Fallout

In February, Trump floated a shocking plan to temporarily expel over 2 million Gazans, resettle them in Egypt or Jordan, and convert Gaza into a “Middle East Riviera.” This plan terrified Arab governments, not only for humanitarian reasons but also for its potential to destabilize host countries.

• • Qatar fears being blamed for failed mediation with Hamas.

• • The UAE fears being saddled with Gaza’s reconstruction bill.

• • All Arab regimes fear radicalisation among their own populations as the war drags on.

Netanyahu has threatened to erase Gaza if no ceasefire is reached by May 15—the day Trump is set to meet Gulf leaders. This makes Arab leaders vulnerable to accusations of complicity unless they publicly oppose Israel’s plans.

Syria, Israel, and Trump’s Legacy Quest

Israeli military expansion in southern Syria, coupled with over a hundred recent airstrikes, has also raised alarm. Syria’s new president, Ahmad al-Shar’a, is expected to attend the upcoming Arab summit, complicating regional dynamics further.

Trump may return home with little more than arms deals, but he’s seeking a legacy-defining win. A comprehensive deal with Iran—including a ceasefire in Gaza, humanitarian aid access, and a path toward Palestinian statehood—would significantly reduce the risk of regional war and restore U.S. credibility.

But such a deal would require mature diplomacy, something Trump’s chaotic administration has repeatedly lacked. So far, his approach suggests a preference for power politics over partnerships, and transactional deals over long-term peace.

If Trump proceeds with Israel’s plan to annex Gaza or parts of the West Bank, any temporary regional calm from an Iran deal will quickly unravel.

Conclusion: A Chance to Break the Cycle

This trip may be Trump’s last opportunity to end the U.S.’s decades-long cycle of failed Middle East policy. To do so, he must abandon short-term theatrics for strategic vision—one that balances diplomacy with restraint, and ends the bloodshed in Gaza not with luxury resorts, but with justice and dignity for its people.