Israeli Analysis: Trump Is “Slicing the Cake” Without Netanyahu—and Leaving Him the Crumbs

As the Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempts to project calm and control, tensions continue to escalate between his government and former U.S. President Donald Trump. While extremist ministers like Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich push for an indefinite war in Gaza, Trump appears more focused on scoring quick diplomatic victories in the Middle East.

According to Tal Shalev, political correspondent for Walla, the relationship between Netanyahu and Trump is rapidly deteriorating. She poses a powerful hypothetical: “What if a Democrat like Biden or Obama had brokered a ceasefire with the Houthis without informing Israel, opened negotiations with Iran, or allowed Saudi Arabia to develop a civilian nuclear program—without recognising Israel or normalising ties?”

Shalev notes there’s no need to imagine: in 2015, Netanyahu launched a full-scale diplomatic campaign against Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. He gave fiery speeches, appeared on every major U.S. talk show, and compared the deal to Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement of Nazi Germany. Had any other Israeli leader faced such sidelining from Washington, Netanyahu would have turned the media into a battlefield.

And yet now, she argues, this is precisely what’s happening—not under a Democrat, but under Trump, the man Netanyahu once called “Israel’s greatest friend in the White House.” Trump’s recent actions—including a surprise ceasefire with the Houthis, praise for Turkish President Erdogan, and talk of Iran negotiations—have made one thing clear: the honeymoon is over.

The breaking point began when Trump awkwardly summoned Netanyahu to the Oval Office, during which he revealed Iran talks, hailed Erdogan as a “dear friend,” and declared the Houthis ceasefire—without even mentioning the attacks on Ben Gurion Airport or Tel Aviv. Media leaks also suggest upcoming agreements with Saudi Arabia that exclude Israel entirely.

While Netanyahu’s office insists a visit with Trump is still on the agenda, Trump continues touring palaces in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—a diplomatic snub reminiscent of Obama’s 2009 visit to the Muslim world, which notably skipped Tel Aviv. Back then, Netanyahu used that visit to paint Obama as anti-Israel. But Trump’s moves now leave Netanyahu politically exposed.

Shalev warns that the image Netanyahu built as “Mr. America”—the master of Washington’s corridors of power—is crumbling. Not only is he facing blame for the October 7 failure, but even his trusted envoy Ron Dermer has lost credibility amid collapsed hostage negotiations and the White House’s strategic surprises, including the firing of National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who reportedly kept a backchannel open with Dermer on Iran.

For years, Dermer was marketed as an American political insider, fluent in Washington’s dynamics. But in Trump’s second act, the recipe has changed. Trump is “dividing the Middle East cake” without waiting for Netanyahu, and leaving behind only crumbs. The pressure Netanyahu and Dermer once exerted on the Evangelical bloc in the Republican Party has been replaced by “America First” hardliners surrounding Trump, including Vice President J.D. Vance.

Having burned bridges with the Democratic Party over the past 15 years, Netanyahu now finds himself without leverage. He’s left claiming the U.S.-Israel alliance is “stronger than ever” while privately fearing Trump—a volatile Republican—might demand steeper concessions than Biden ever dared.

If Trump intensifies this trajectory, any rift with Netanyahu will further destroy his American credibility—something he desperately needs for his next election campaign. His fading alliance with Trump threatens to overshadow even his Iran and Saudi legacy—a legacy he hoped would distract from the catastrophic failure of October 7 and cement his political survival.

Shalev concludes that while Netanyahu, Ben Gvir, and Smotrich push for a never-ending war in Gaza, Trump is racing toward quick regional achievements. He has already shown he can impose a ceasefire, even against Israel’s will. Since January, Washington gave Israel a free hand in Gaza, with Trump’s anti-Hamas rhetoric offering political cover. But now the winds are shifting.

As with Saudi Arabia and Iran, Trump may soon impose a Gaza deal on Israel—especially as billions in Gulf funding flow his way. For Saudi, Emirati, and Qatari leaders, Trump’s arrival means opportunity. And for Israel, he may be the only one capable of halting the war drums in Gaza and saving the 59 hostages that Netanyahu’s government has all but abandoned.