What Military Factors Paved the Way for the India–Pakistan Ceasefire?

In a detailed analysis of the recent India–Pakistan escalation, military expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi stated that military calculations were pivotal in facilitating the sudden ceasefire agreement between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

He explained that the aerial engagements revealed a fragile balance of power and limited escalation options for both sides, despite heightened rhetoric and initial cross-border exchanges.

Technological Parity, Not Supremacy

Al-Duwairi noted that both countries operated fourth-generation “plus” fighter aircraft, rather than fifth-generation stealth jets, which meant that air superiority was determined more by advanced radar systems, beyond-visual-range (BVR) missile capabilities, and pilot training, rather than aircraft type alone.

Pakistan primarily relied on upgraded JF-17 Thunder jets (developed jointly with China) equipped with BVR missiles exceeding 140km in range. Meanwhile, India deployed a mix of Sukhoi Su-30s, Rafale fighters, and MiG-29s—all formidable platforms within BVR combat zones.

Notably, the dogfights were conducted without crossing into enemy airspace, thanks to the extended range of missile systems, thus limiting direct engagements and keeping hostilities within controlled parameters.

U.S. Mediation and Controlled Escalation

The ceasefire agreement was brokered by the United States, following a series of retaliatory airstrikes on both military and civilian infrastructure in Kashmir and Punjab. U.S. President Donald Trump’s mediation played a key role in de-escalating the situation, amid growing fears of a broader regional conflict.

Pakistan’s Tactical Edge

According to Al-Duwairi, Pakistan gained a technical edge during the confrontation, particularly in radar and missile system effectiveness, which allowed it to assert deterrence without fully committing to an all-out aerial campaign. A senior Pakistani official even claimed they chose not to down additional Indian aircraft to avoid pushing the conflict into uncontrollable territory.

Al-Duwairi pointed out that neither side violated the other’s airspace, reflecting a deliberate attempt to avoid full-scale war, especially as both nations face logistical limitations such as artillery stockpile shortages and precision-guided missile deficits.

An Hour of Muscle Flexing

The air engagement, which lasted roughly one hour and involved over 100 fighter jets, resembled a calculated display of force rather than a battle aimed at decisive victory. Each side aimed to project strength without provoking irreversible escalation.

Despite India’s advantage in conventional military quantity and assets, Pakistan maintains a more flexible nuclear doctrine, contrasting India’s declared “No First Use” stance. This nuclear ambiguity plays a critical deterrent role, shaping strategic boundaries during crises.

Strategic Posturing and Propaganda

Al-Duwairi stressed that both governments engaged in narrative warfare, issuing conflicting claims about drones and fighter jets shot down. This, he argued, is typical behavior meant to preserve domestic morale and avoid appearing weak in the face of mounting pressure.

He concluded that the ceasefire was not merely the product of diplomatic pressure, but the outcome of precise military assessments which showed that continued hostilities would carry higher costs than benefits for both sides.

A Fragile Peace

While the ceasefire may have averted immediate catastrophe, Al-Duwairi warned that the situation remains fragile. Without a genuine political solution or sustained de-escalation mechanisms, any spark could reignite tensions, especially in a region as volatile as South Asia’s Kashmir corridor.