How Far Could India-Pakistan Military Tensions Go After Cross-Border Strikes?

In the early hours of Wednesday, the Indian army launched several strikes on various locations inside Pakistan in retaliation for what it called a terrorist operation in Kashmir that killed 25 people.

The Indian government said the military operation, dubbed “Sindoor,” targeted nine locations across Pakistan and Jammu & Kashmir. The strikes reportedly avoided Pakistani military installations, focusing instead on what India labelled as terrorist camps.

In response, the Pakistani army confirmed the death of at least eight people, including a child, after Indian airstrikes hit Bahawalpur in Punjab province. According to Pakistani military sources, an Indian infantry battalion was destroyed, and Pakistan vowed further retaliation.

These developments came after Friday’s armed clashes along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border dividing Kashmir, where both sides exchanged heavy fire overnight.

India-US Diplomatic Contacts

The Times of India reported that Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio shortly after the strikes. The Indian embassy in Washington emphasized the operation was “targeted, calculated, and responsible,” stating that only known terrorist camps were hit.

U.S. President Donald Trump described the strikes as “a shame” and expressed hope the situation would de-escalate quickly. Meanwhile, a State Department spokesperson confirmed the U.S. is closely monitoring the evolving situation.

Will War Break Out?

There is rising concern that tensions could spiral into full-scale war, especially as Pakistan reportedly downed three Indian aircraft. CNN cited Pakistani officials confirming the downing and vowing continued retaliation.

Expert Samer Khair Ahmad suggested that global powers like the U.S., China, and Russia have vested interests in de-escalating tensions. He predicted that diplomatic efforts, possibly led by China and Russia, would work to prevent a major conflict.

Hanane Hussein of InitiateFutures noted that the hardline Modi government may escalate further, pushing Pakistan into a forceful response. He stated that India’s strikes, which resulted in civilian casualties, eliminate restrictions on the depth and scope of Pakistan’s retaliation.

Pakistan’s Expected Response

Analysts anticipate a strategic response from Pakistan, possibly led by its air force targeting Indian military assets near the border. Hussein argued the goal would be to send a clear message to India’s leadership, especially against using terrorism as a justification for military aggression.

While nuclear threats remain unlikely, Hussein warned that India might include nuclear rhetoric in its political messaging, although actual use is improbable.

China’s Role and Regional Stakes

With China controlling 15% of Kashmir, and having historical tensions with India, Beijing’s stance is critical. China’s growing alliance with Pakistan was reaffirmed in a recent statement expressing support for Islamabad’s right to defend its sovereignty.

Despite this, Beijing has not officially responded to India’s latest strikes. Analyst Khair Ahmad noted China’s interest in regional stability for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while also aiming to counterbalance U.S. and Indian influence.

In summary, while full-scale war remains unlikely, the military and geopolitical implications of this escalation are significant, with China, Russia, and the U.S. playing key roles in the diplomatic containment of the crisis.