Israel Tests Turkey: How “Warm-Up” Battles Are Managed in Global Power Struggles

I had the opportunity to speak with Turkish Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler just before a scheduled meeting. As expected, once the topic of Syria came up, I promptly asked for the latest updates. He responded, “The mechanism we established to counter ISIS—which we discussed in a meeting held in Jordan—will soon become operational. We are fully committed to this. Another priority for us is for the terrorist organisation (referring to the PKK or similar groups) to disarm and dissolve. But Israel continues to stir problems in all these matters. It’s futile, though—we are determined to implement our decisions.”

At the very moment this article was being written, Israeli warplanes were flying over Quneitra, while small Druze groups—indirectly supported by Israel—were engaged in clashes with the Syrian army in the area.

At the same time, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated on his flight back from Italy, “Israel’s attacks are an attempt to obstruct the new administration in Syria. For us, Syria’s territorial integrity is non-negotiable. We will not allow the imposition of new realities on the ground.”

From the moment Israel began to view Syria’s new political landscape as a threat, it has been working non-stop to stir chaos inside the country and probe Turkey’s red lines.

Israeli think tanks and media outlets have begun publishing analyses predicting the consequences of a potential Turkey-Israel clash, aiming to emphasise how “serious” the situation is. Beyond this, propaganda campaigns targeting Turkey have emerged in British media and on Arabic-language platforms—again, weaponising the Syrian file.

All of this suggests that Syria is being used as a “warm-up arena,” a proving ground for testing the limits of confrontation between Turkey and Israel. Israel’s goal appears to be gauging Turkey’s seriousness, determining how indispensable the new Syrian administration is to Ankara, and evaluating how far Turkey is willing to go in its stance against Tel Aviv.

In an interview I conducted with a senior officer in the Turkish Armed Forces, I asked him to compare the military capabilities of Turkey and Israel. He laughed and replied, “That’s a ridiculous comparison. Israel wouldn’t stand a chance against the Turkish army.”

He added with firm resolve: “Our rules of engagement are clear: we will respond in kind to any attack, regardless of which country is behind it. Any assault on our military bases is a casus belli.”

This sentiment is echoed by other Turkish officials. And Israel reads these signals carefully. The pressing question now is: how far is Turkey willing to go in its response, especially given Israel’s full backing from Washington? That’s what Israel is probing.

Undoubtedly, Turkey will respond to any aggressive developments, but the nature of its response may not follow traditional military protocols. Much will depend on the form and severity of Israel’s provocations.

While no one expects Israel to take overt steps leading to direct confrontation, it’s clear the regime is now more openly seeking to weaken Syria’s emerging administration—and willing to do whatever it takes to achieve that. The battlefield is now a test of who possesses greater resolve and strategic discipline.

A Parallel Test of Power: U.S.-China Confrontation Brewing in Kashmir

Thousands of miles from Syria, another arena is becoming a crucible for testing global willpower.

While tension between India and Pakistan over issues like Kashmir, water rights, migration, and border security is not new, recent developments have taken on an unexpected intensity. The reported deaths of 25 people in recent Kashmir clashes are just one symptom of a deeper, evolving crisis.

This time, what’s changing the game is the new alignment of the United States and China within this conflict.

As Washington deepens ties with India, Beijing has reached a peak in its relationship with Pakistan. Pakistan’s defense minister announced that both Russia and China would be involved in the investigation of recent Kashmir incidents. In response to India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, China threatened to cut off water flowing from its territory into India, describing New Delhi’s move as “aggressive and hostile toward Pakistan.”

While the U.S. continues to issue superficial calls to “de-escalate,” behind closed doors it reaffirms its unwavering support for India.

Is this the next frontline in the U.S.-China power struggle?

Washington’s trade war against Beijing, launched to curb China’s economic ascent and global influence, hasn’t yielded the results it hoped for. Trump often walked back from his aggressive rhetoric.

Yet the U.S. recognises it must act before the strategic window closes. The India-Pakistan conflict is now seen as a chance to test China’s military posture, resilience, and strategic endurance—right on its doorstep.

In a complex regional scene involving Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Russia, the U.S. seems keen to observe just how far China is willing to go if war breaks out—how deeply it can be drawn in, and how much of its resources can be strained. The fact that this trial of strength is unfolding 13,000 kilometres from U.S. soil makes it all the more attractive to Washington.

Just like in the economic wars, China’s famed strategic patience will likely define its approach here. But what surprised me most is Beijing’s increasing willingness—perhaps for the first time—to take a clear, active side in a direct conflict.

I believe this crisis will ultimately mark a deeper Chinese penetration into Pakistan, along with a stronger foothold in regional states like Bangladesh and Afghanistan. China will frame the India-U.S. alliance as a regional threat, justifying its expanded presence.

It’s clear the U.S. is frantically pressing every geopolitical button to derail and contain China. But—as has often been the case—China may well emerge even stronger, while Washington takes yet another step back.