MBS Faces Public Backlash Over Potential Normalisation with Israel

A recent analysis by the Atlantic Council highlights the political dilemma facing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) as he attempts to navigate mounting U.S. pressure to normalise ties with Israel, amid strong domestic rejection from the Saudi public.

As the prospect of a second Trump presidency grows closer, Middle East analysts have resumed speculating about the long-discussed Saudi–Israeli normalisation deal, likely brokered by Washington.

The outline of such a deal is familiar: Saudi Arabia would recognise Israel in exchange for U.S. security guarantees (possibly in treaty form), assistance in its civilian nuclear program, cooperation in high-tech sectors including artificial intelligence, and — most vaguely — progress toward a Palestinian state.

The phrase most frequently repeated by American negotiators is a “credible and irreversible path to a Palestinian state.”

Normalisation at a Political Cost

With Trump expected to visit Saudi Arabia next month, normalisation is firmly on the agenda — but MBS is walking a tightrope. There are three key reasons why he cannot afford to bypass the Palestinian issue:

1. 1. Public Opinion: Millions of Saudis — and Arabs across the region — would view MBS as betraying Palestine if he proceeds without securing tangible gains for the Palestinians.

1. 1. Historical Prestige: If he succeeds in extracting concessions Israel has never offered, he would surpass the legacies of more prominent Arab leaders.

1. 1. Strategic Distraction: The unresolved conflict continues to destabilise the region and hinder Saudi Arabia’s broader ambitions.

Before Israel’s devastating war on Gaza in October 2023, Riyadh was reportedly close to signing a deal without requiring Palestinian statehood. But the massacre of over 50,000 Palestinians — including tens of thousands of civilians — changed everything.

At the 2023 Arab League Summit, MBS called the assault “genocidal.” In a September speech, he affirmed that no peace agreement would be signed without the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The Netanyahu Obstacle

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains a staunch opponent of any Palestinian state. In 2021, he boasted that the Abraham Accords marked a permanent departure from the “land for peace” doctrine, offering instead “peace for peace” — with zero territorial concessions.

His strategy has been to cut deals with Arab states while leaving Palestinians politically isolated.

Terms like “a path to statehood” have now joined a long list of broken promises to Palestinians:

• • Anwar Sadat believed “autonomy” was guaranteed when he signed the Camp David Accords in 1979.

• • Yasser Arafat was promised self-rule under the Oslo Accords in 1993.

• • King Hussein of Jordan agreed to peace with Israel in 1994, convinced the Palestinians had secured “political horizons.”

Yet none of these promises — autonomy, independence, peace — ever materialised. Oslo collapsed. Settlements expanded. And hope evaporated.

Normalisation Without Palestine: A Repeating Pattern

The Abraham Accords of 2020 — between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco — bypassed Palestine entirely.

In return for normalisation:

• • The UAE expected F-35 fighter jets and Reaper drones.

• • Morocco received U.S. recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara.

• • Sudan was removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism.

No concessions were made for Palestine.

Now, Saudi Arabia is naming its price. But the lessons from past agreements are clear:

1. 1. Israel has never accepted a peace deal that explicitly includes statehood for Palestinians.

1. 1. The U.S. has never pressured Israel to change that position.

MBS Is Cornered by Public Opinion

Reportedly, MBS once told U.S. officials that he “doesn’t really care” about the Palestinian issue and didn’t want it to obstruct Vision 2030 or efforts to contain Iran.

But Gaza changed everything.

In a meeting with then-U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, MBS admitted:

“Seventy percent of my population is younger than me. Most of them didn’t know about Palestine before. But this war made them aware.”

A February 2024 poll by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies revealed a seismic shift in public opinion:

• • 68% of Saudis now oppose normalisation with Israel — up from 38% in 2022.

The war rekindled Palestinian solidarity across generations. For the first time, many young Saudis witnessed the brutality of occupation broadcast live on their phones — unfiltered, unforgettable.

The Trump Factor: Pressure Without Peace

The Trump team may push MBS to drop demands for a Palestinian state in return for American rewards — technology deals, arms packages, or even vague administrative reforms in the West Bank.

They may rebrand “Palestinian statehood” as a “municipal autonomy” or propose a “state” made of fragmented zones — echoing the discredited Oslo model.

But any deal struck under these conditions would force MBS to justify every future Israeli aggression — every bombing, every eviction, every denial of basic Palestinian rights.

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