Are India and Pakistan headed for war?

There was a sense of great restlessness in Pakistan’s government last Thursday.

At a National Security Committee meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, government and military officials looked overworked, bewildered and infuriated. The source of their discomfort was India.

Two days earlier, reports of a deadly incident had emerged from Indian-administered Kashmir’s lush Baisaran meadow, a tourist spot surrounded by pine forests and snow-capped Himalayan peaks. A group of armed men wearing camouflage gear opened fire on visiting tourists, killing 26 people and injuring more than a dozen others.

Indian security agencies were quick to suggest the attack was linked to Pakistan. Videos circulating on social media showed maimed tourists lying on the ground as their relatives pleaded for help. Due to a lack of road access, helicopter services were deployed to evacuate the wounded.

Omar Abdullah, Kashmir’s chief minister, wrote on social media: “This attack is much larger than anything we’ve seen directed at civilians in recent years.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi noted: “Those behind this heinous act will be brought to justice… They will not be spared. Their evil agenda will never succeed. Our resolve to fight terrorism is unshakeable and will only grow stronger.”

A militant group identifying itself as the “Kashmir Resistance”, which is believed to be associated with the banned terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack. 

“This has been unleashed by the Pakistan army,” alleged SP Vaid, the former director general of police for Kashmir, adding that Pakistani special forces were “posing as terrorists and carrying out these attacks”.

Indus treaty suspended

The Indian government quickly announced a flurry of punitive measures against Pakistan, including the suspension of the critical Indus Waters Treaty, the cancellation of visas and the downgrading of diplomatic ties. India also shut down its main border crossing with Pakistan and ordered Pakistanis on certain visas to leave within 48 hours. 

Pakistan has denied any role in Tuesday’s ambush, calling India’s accusations “politically motivated”. Across Pakistan, there are growing worries over India’s proposed blockage of the Indus waters, on which the majority of the country’s agriculture depends. 

The treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has endured full-scale military conflicts and diplomatic breakdowns over the years. Its suspension is unprecedented and marks a major turning point in an already fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. 

Any interference by India in the river’s flow could have immense consequences for Pakistan, including lower crop yields and rising agricultural costs. “I am very worried,” political analyst and scientist Pervez Hoodbhoy told Middle East Eye, adding that “revoking the treaty is a call for war – a war that neither nuclear-armed country can win”. 

In a strongly worded news conference after Thursday’s meeting, Pakistan announced tit-for-tat measures against India, including the suspension of visas and trade, expulsion of diplomats and closing of Pakistani airspace to Indian flights. 

“This is not the first time India has blamed Pakistan for an insurgency that is entirely home-grown,” Ata Munim Shahid, a former diplomat told Middle East Eye, adding that “we have always condemned terrorism, as we have ourselves been victims of it.” 

But while there is some validity to longstanding Indian accusations that Pakistan supports insurgents, Modi’s far-right politics are another important factor in the recent developments. 

Fragmented society

Indian society under Modi has been severely fragmented over the past decade, with a slew of measures promoting Hindu majoritarianism. Hindu far-right activists denounce Muslims as foreign infiltrators, attacking the very fabric of Indian society. 

Human rights violations against Muslim minority communities have become a regular occurrence in India. And in August 2019, Modi revoked Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, bringing the region under direct state control. Kashmiri leaders and independence activists were jailed, and a curfew was imposed. 

Accusing Pakistan of fomenting terrorism has been a recurring theme in Modi’s politics. Pakistani analysts say the Indian prime minister has successfully deployed anti-Pakistan sentiment as an electoral rallying cry. 

In 2019, India responded to a deadly attack on its security personnel in Pulwama with air strikes on Pakistani territory. An all-out war might have ensued, were it not for US and Arab mediation. Several years earlier, an attack on an Indian military base in Kashmir triggered a round of hostilities.

After the latest attack on tourists, Ahmed Saeed Minhas, a Pakistani retired brigadier general, said in a televised interview: “They’re blaming Pakistan without proof.”

The attack occurred while India was hosting US Vice President JD Vance, who was in the country to promote defence ties and applaud India as a key ally against China. Historically, Washington has been key to containing hostilities between India and Pakistan. But this time, India appears to have the full backing of the top US leadership. 

Sanity must prevail. Both countries are home to large swathes of poverty-stricken populations, who have little to guard themselves against the fallout of any military misadventure.  

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of  Sunna Files Website

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