A new study by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) has outlined four bleak scenarios facing the Israeli occupation in its ongoing war on Gaza. The analysis comes as the war—now stretching over several months since October 7, 2023—has resulted in over 168,000 Palestinians killed or injured, most of them women and children, along with thousands still missing, and a deepening humanitarian catastrophe under a suffocating blockade.
The study, authored by Ofer Guterman, a former analyst in Israel’s military intelligence, is titled “Strategic Alternatives for Gaza” and asserts that Israel is now at a strategic crossroads requiring the formulation of a long-term vision for the Strip.
Four Grim Options
The report outlines four primary strategic options for Israel regarding the future of Gaza:
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Mass Displacement (Disguised as “Voluntary Migration”)This is viewed as strategically shortsighted and operationally unfeasible, with little chance of meaningful implementation.
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Direct Occupation and Prolonged Military RuleAlthough this could potentially weaken Hamas, it would not guarantee its eradication. It poses serious risks to Israeli hostages, involves immense human and financial costs, and would overextend Israel’s military presence in the long term.
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Establishing a “Moderate” Palestinian Administration with Regional and International SupportThis is deemed less costly for Israel and more politically palatable. However, the lack of a mechanism to disarm Hamas or dismantle its military infrastructure makes it a weak and potentially unstable solution.
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Maintaining the Status QuoThis scenario involves a passive continuation of the current situation, avoiding major military or political decisions, and effectively allowing Hamas to retain control over Gaza.
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A Two-Track Strategy
The study proposes a dual-track strategy that combines military escalation with coordinated political efforts. The goal: to debilitate Hamas militarily while simultaneously laying the groundwork for a “moderate” governing alternative—to be developed through close cooperation with Arab states and tied to a broader regional normalization framework, including possible diplomatic progress with Saudi Arabia.
This approach, the report suggests, could allow Israel to preserve its military and security autonomy while strategically recalibrating risk and resource allocation. It also emphasises the need to account for the socioeconomic and political fallout of the war on Israeli society.
Hamas: Too Rooted to Uproot?
Importantly, the study admits that Hamas cannot be easily eradicated, describing it as deeply embedded in Gaza’s societal fabric—from tribal and familial networks to its religious and political institutions. Over decades, Hamas has entrenched itself ideologically and structurally, making it impossible to bypass without a viable and trusted alternative.
Although reconstruction of Gaza is a necessity, the future of any rebuilding effort remains uncertain due to the unprecedented destruction, collapse of infrastructure, and lack of a coherent post-war vision.
No Clear Path Forward
The study reminds readers of Israel’s declared war objectives: militarily and politically eliminating Hamas, securing the release of hostages, and ensuring Gaza never again poses a strategic threat.
However, growing dissent within Israeli opposition circles questions the Netanyahu government’s ability to fulfil these aims. Critics argue that Netanyahu’s coalition lacks a coherent post-war strategy and has instead prolonged the war to maintain political survival.
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