As U.S. President Donald Trump offered to mediate between Ankara and Tel Aviv to ease tensions over Syria, a quiet geopolitical clash is unfolding — one that pits Turkey’s strategic expansion against Israel’s long-standing presence in the war-torn country.
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Israel has intensified efforts to limit Turkish influence in southern Syria, fearing a new regional order that could threaten its strategic freedom.
Turkey Expands — Israel Reacts
Reports surfaced in early 2025 of Turkey planning to establish major military bases in Syria and negotiating a formal defence pact with Damascus’ post-Assad transitional government. In response, Israel launched a wave of airstrikes targeting strategic military facilities in Hama, Homs, and the Damascus countryside — including the T4 Airbase, which Ankara allegedly sought to control.
While Israel publicly claims it will not allow Syria to be used as a launchpad for attacks against its territory, analysts suggest a deeper concern: An empowered Turkey in Syria challenges Israeli air superiority and regional dominance.
Sources speaking to Middle East Eye also confirm that Prime Minister Netanyahu is pressuring the U.S. to block F-35 sales to Turkey, citing rising anxieties over Ankara’s military footprint in Syria.
A Clash of Visions for Syria
Turkey insists on maintaining the territorial integrity of Syria, while Israel has proposed a federal model that grants autonomy to minority groups. Tel Aviv’s military also claims the right to “defend” Druze populations in the south, with Netanyahu calling for “special security arrangements” in Quneitra, Daraa, and Suwayda.
Further raising eyebrows in Ankara, Israel recently declared the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as allies, prompting suspicions that Tel Aviv is using Kurdish groups to stir unrest in northern Syria and weaken Turkish influence.
A Strategic Shift Toward Ottoman Echoes?
An internal Israeli defence review reportedly warned that a Sunni-Islamist-led Syria backed by Turkey poses a greater long-term threat than the previous Iranian-aligned Assad regime. The report brands the new Syrian leadership as a “proxy” of Ankara and casts Turkey’s ambitions as a revivalist push toward Ottoman-era dominance.
Think tanks like the Alma Research Center echoed similar fears, citing Turkey’s growing drone and missile capabilities. While direct confrontation remains unlikely, the report emphasises indirect threats — via proxies or a restructured Syrian military — as more probable scenarios.
Israel’s Policy: Keep Syria Weak, Let Russia Stay
To counterbalance Turkey, Israel is quietly lobbying Washington to preserve Syria’s decentralisation and tolerate Russian military presence — a significant shift in Israeli strategic thinking, as reported by Reuters.
The idea? Let Moscow serve as a buffer between Turkish ambitions and Israeli security operations.
Turkey Responds: Our Presence Is Legal — and Stabilising
On April 4, 2025, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan clarified Ankara’s stance: Turkey does not seek confrontation with Israel in Syria, but warned that Israel’s ongoing strikes are undermining regional stability and the new Syrian government’s ability to defend against threats like ISIS and terrorism.
Fidan affirmed that Turkey’s military presence in Syria will be based on legally binding agreements with the Syrian state, aimed at counterterrorism and regional security, not confrontation with third parties.
Senior AKP spokesman Ömer Çelik added: “Israel’s aggression destabilises the region, not our presence.” Turkish sources reiterated that Ankara’s moves align with international law and are aimed at restoring security — not escalating conflict.
War or Deterrence?
A report by The Economist argues that despite heated rhetoric, a full-scale clash between Israel and Turkey is unlikely. Instead, the focus seems to be on establishing mutual deterrence.
Western sources told Middle East Eye that behind closed doors, Israel and Turkey are exploring a deconfliction mechanism to avoid direct military encounters inside Syria.
Interestingly, Israel may tacitly accept Turkish bases in Hama and Palmyra as part of a broader deal to prevent escalation.
Final Word: A Proxy Standoff, Not a Direct War
While Turkey and Israel may not go to war directly, what’s unfolding in Syria is a battle of influence and proxies — one with far-reaching implications for regional balance.
As Sabah columnist Burcan Tutar notes, “America’s new foreign policy calculus places a premium on both Turkey and Russia,” meaning Washington is unlikely to give Israel carte blanche to provoke Ankara.
For now, Turkey is playing a long game in Syria, rooted in state-to-state agreements and regional stability. Israel, meanwhile, scrambles to retain its military freedom and strategic primacy in a changing Middle East.
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