A report published by the Financial Times and co-authored by Andrew England and Najmeh Bozorgmehr raises a critical question: Is Iran heading toward an inevitable clash with the West — and particularly with U.S. President Donald Trump? The authors argue that time is running out between Trump — known for his volatility — and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who deeply mistrusts the West.
The Fallout of Trump’s 2018 Decision
The report recalls how, seven years ago, Trump stood in the White House’s diplomatic reception room and effectively declared the death of a major international diplomatic achievement — the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.
In just 12 minutes, Trump tore apart what had been seen globally as a landmark in diplomacy. With the stroke of a pen, he re-imposed devastating sanctions on Iran, launching what he termed a campaign of “maximum pressure.”
Trump warned that if nothing was done, “the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism” would soon possess the “world’s most dangerous weapons.”
Now: The Consequences of Maximum Pressure Return
With Trump back in office, the consequences of his 2018 withdrawal are mounting. Iran has shifted from compliance to escalation, significantly advancing its nuclear program. According to the Financial Times, the region is moving toward a high-stakes confrontation, with 2025 poised as a potential flashpoint.
The risk of a new Middle East war looms large. If Iran views itself as facing an existential threat, there’s a real possibility it may attempt to weaponise its stockpile of enriched uranium, potentially becoming the world’s tenth nuclear-armed state.
Israel and Western Allies Push Toward Military Action
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right government — emboldened after a year of strikes on Iran and its allies — are pressuring the U.S. for military escalation. Meanwhile, Europe’s E3 (UK, France, Germany), originally opposed to Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal, now appear increasingly confrontational, frustrated by Iran’s growing nuclear activity and political intransigence under Khamenei.
A critical milestone approaches this autumn: the expiration of key provisions of the 2015 agreement. The E3 may trigger the “snapback” mechanism, which would reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, escalating tensions dramatically.
Diplomatic Doors Narrow, But Resistance Remains
Iran has warned it could withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if the snapback occurs. Enrichment of uranium has already reached 60% — just short of weapons-grade. While U.S. intelligence agencies do not believe Iran is currently building a bomb, they acknowledge that Tehran now has the material to build up to six nuclear weapons in under two weeks.
Kelsey Davenport, a non-proliferation expert, cautions that Iran could reach the threshold before detection, enabling it to produce a rudimentary nuclear weapon within months.
High-Stakes Politics: The “Game of Chicken”
A senior Iranian insider described the current situation as a high-risk game of chicken — a political standoff between two leaders unwilling to veer off course.
Hopes of diplomacy emerged when moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian was elected, signalling readiness to revive negotiations. However, Trump’s recent executive order reinstating maximum pressure, including moves to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero, was taken as a sign of aggression rather than negotiation.
Trump’s memo also targeted Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional allies, declaring that both must be neutralised. Iran saw this as a direct attempt to dismantle its defensive posture, a red line for the Islamic Republic.
A Boost for Iranian Hardliners
Dr. Vali Nasr, of Johns Hopkins University, noted that the memo energised Iranian hardliners, weakening the position of reformists like Pezeshkian. “There’s growing pressure on Khamenei,” Nasr said. “He already believes Washington’s goal is regime change.”
Trump’s tone continues to fluctuate. While he publicly declared a desire for a “nuclear peace deal,” he also threatened Iran with unprecedented bombing if it doesn’t comply.
In March, Trump sent a personal message to Khamenei saying he preferred diplomacy — then days later warned: “There are two ways to deal with Iran: militarily or through a deal.”
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz added that the U.S. wants the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, a non-negotiable condition for Tehran.
Resistance Tools: What Cards Does Iran Still Hold?
Despite sanctions, Iran maintains regional deterrence capabilities. Trump’s earlier strike that assassinated General Qassem Soleimani brought the two sides to the brink of war. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on U.S. bases and has engaged in drone warfare and strategic strikes on Gulf oil infrastructure.
Analysts warn that, while Iran seeks to avoid war, it will fight if cornered — and its targets would include U.S. bases and oil facilities in the Gulf.
Iran has recently improved ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE — former supporters of Trump’s pressure campaign — in an attempt to avoid further isolation.
Domestically, however, Iran is under economic siege. Inflation has soared, the rial has plummeted, and public unrest has intensified, especially after the 2022 protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini.
Economist Saeed Laylaz said: “Mahsa Amini’s death wounded the soul of the nation. The inflation has crushed its spine.”
Still, Iran’s pragmatic leadership believes resistance is preferable to surrender under pressure. The question remains: Can the Iranian people endure more hardship?
The government has taken steps to reduce public frustration — including easing hijab enforcement and raising the minimum wage by 45% — but deep distrust of the West and national resilience remain cornerstones of Tehran’s strategy.
A Volatile Future and Few Diplomatic Options
The report concludes that Iran’s nuclear progress has become its key bargaining chip — a signal to adversaries not to overplay their hand. But with time running out, and both sides dug in, any new agreement would be far more complex than before.
With limited diplomatic tools left, the Islamic Republic continues to leverage resistance, deterrence, and strategic patience in what could become the defining regional showdown of the decade.
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