A recent report by The Financial Times, authored by Andrew England and Najmeh Bozorgmehr, raised pressing questions: Is Iran on a collision course with the West, particularly under Donald Trump, or can diplomacy still avert a dangerous confrontation?
The report highlights that time is running out between a volatile U.S. President and an Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who deeply distrusts the West, making the threat of direct conflict increasingly real.
Seven years ago, Trump walked into a diplomatic reception room at the White House and shattered what many considered a major international diplomatic achievement—the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, signed by the U.S., EU, China, and Russia.
“If we do nothing, we know exactly what will happen… the world’s leading state sponsor of terror will be on the cusp of acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapons.”
Now Back in Power — Trump Faces the Fallout
With Trump’s return to the White House, the U.S. is now facing the repercussions of that decision. Iran, no longer bound by the deal, has accelerated its nuclear programme, and tensions are escalating dangerously toward a potential military flashpoint in 2025.
The risk? A new Middle East war, and the real possibility that if Iran perceives an existential threat, it could weaponise its enriched uranium stockpile, becoming the world’s tenth nuclear power.
Netanyahu, Europe, and the Push for War
The report suggests that some actors want this conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right government, emboldened by recent strikes against Iran and its allies, are pressuring the U.S. to pursue military action.
Even European signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal — the UK, France, and Germany — once opposed Trump’s withdrawal and tried to revive diplomacy under Biden. But today, they appear increasingly aligned with U.S. hardliners, frustrated by Iran’s nuclear advancements and perceived intransigence.
A critical deadline looms in October 2025, when key provisions of the nuclear deal expire. The E3 may invoke the “snapback mechanism”, which would reinstate UN sanctions. Western diplomats admit this could embolden hardliners in Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv, increasing the risk of war.
Iran has warned that if sanctions return, it may withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The country is already enriching uranium to 60% purity, a level close to weapons-grade.
“Iran now has enough fissile material to build up to six nuclear warheads in under two weeks,” said Kelsey Davenport, a nuclear nonproliferation expert.“They could assemble a crude bomb within months if undetected.”
A High-Stakes Game of Chicken
The report describes the current phase as a high-risk standoff, with both sides speeding toward each other in a diplomatic game of chicken. Trump wants a win. Khamenei won’t surrender under pressure.
Although Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed willingness to negotiate and ease sanctions, Trump’s February 2025 executive order reimposed maximum-pressure sanctions, seeking to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero, strip its missile programme, and dismantle its regional alliances.
This move, the report states, strengthened Iranian hardliners, who viewed the order as proof that Washington seeks regime change, not compromise.
“Don’t listen to what he says, look at what he signs,” Iranian officials reportedly told Pezeshkian.“There’s internal pressure on the Supreme Leader to not give in.”
Trump: Mixed Signals, Military Threats
Despite the harsh sanctions, Trump later posted on social media that he hoped to reach a “documented nuclear peace deal” with Iran—followed by a “Middle East celebration.”
Israel, Iran, and the Regional Chessboard
The situation is further complicated by Netanyahu’s push to dismantle Iran’s missile and nuclear programmes entirely, believing Tehran is at its weakest point in decades. Think tanks like the Foundation for Defense of Democracies argue only a credible military threat can force Iran to choose between its programme or its regime.
Though Trump is seen as hesitant to start wars, observers say Iran may be the exception. After all, in 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, and in recent weeks, he’s authorised airstrikes against Iranian allies in Yemen, warning Tehran of “severe consequences” for any further escalation.
Still, some figures from the MAGA movement, like Tucker Carlson, oppose war, creating internal division within Trump’s orbit.
The Resistance’s Calculations
The report notes that Israel claims to have destroyed much of Iran’s air defences in strikes last October, while Hezbollah’s capabilities have weakened, and Assad’s regime fell in December, stripping Iran of its most loyal regional ally.
Inside Iran, the economic situation is dire. Inflation hovers above 32%, the rial has plunged, and the youth continue to feel disconnected from the religious leadership—especially after the killing of Mahsa Amini in 2022 and the crackdown that followed.
“Mahsa’s death pierced the soul of the nation,” said economist Saeed Laylaz,“And runaway inflation broke its back.”
Despite this, Iranian insiders told the FT that Tehran may prefer limited confrontation over negotiating under coercion.
“Iran’s survival instinct and pragmatic realism favour resistance,”one insider said.“The real question is whether the people can endure more hardship.”
Iran’s Red Lines and Regional Reach
Tehran has taken modest steps to defuse public anger—relaxing hijab enforcement and raising minimum wages by 45%, but analysts caution against underestimating the regime’s resilience.
“Iran is weak—but it still has powerful options in the Gulf,” said Prof. Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University.“When Iran feels threatened, it raises the stakes for everyone else.”
Indeed, following Trump’s 2018 sanctions, Iran was accused of sabotaging oil tankers and launching missile attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure that temporarily cut the Kingdom’s output by half.
After the assassination of Soleimani, Iran fired missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq. Just last year, Iran and Israel exchanged direct missile fire for the first time.
Iran has no desire for war, says a regime source, acknowledging the power gap with the U.S.,
“But if cornered, it will fight.”
Tehran has also restored ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who once backed Trump’s maximum pressure. Yet if war erupts, Iran will target U.S. bases and regional oil facilities, the source warned.
