Recently, there has been a surge in Israeli incitement against Egypt, with claims of an escalation in its military presence in Sinai and alleged violations of the peace agreement, even suggesting the possibility of war. On social media, there have been videos showing photographic evidence of tanks, armored personnel carriers, logistical equipment, and Egyptian soldiers entering the peninsula.
Yehuda Blanga, former head of the National Security Council, claimed that “since 2004, Egypt has constructed nearly 60 crossings, bridges, and tunnels across the Suez Canal, and has built numerous ammunition depots, underground storage sites, logistical centers, and fuel storage facilities in Sinai. This paints a worrying picture, especially since in recent years, Egypt’s military has undergone serious upgrades. The military’s infrastructure was strengthened with the rise of Sisi to power, with greater involvement of the army in the economy and domestic politics, and since 2014, Egypt has accelerated the modernization of its armed forces.”
In an article published in the Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom and translated by Arabi21, Blanga added, “The stated reason behind all these developments is the need to combat armed groups in Sinai, demonstrate strength against Ethiopia, which built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and threatens to dry up the Nile, and to curb Iran’s influence in the region, which includes the spread of armed operations from Libya’s western borders into Egypt.”
The author asserted that “ISIS, Ethiopia, and Libya are mere pretexts, as in practice, despite the Camp David Agreement, Egyptians have always treated Israelis as enemies, ingrained in their education, culture, and media, depicting them as a monstrous, foreign occupying force that threatens regional peace. Therefore, normalization with Israel is not on the agenda, and the Egyptian public’s frustration is clear after any Israeli aggression in Gaza or Lebanon.”
He clarified that “after former U.S. President Barack Obama threatened to freeze military aid to Egypt following Sisi’s ascension to power in 2013, Egyptian street movements across political factions called for the cancellation of the Camp David Agreement and the severing of ties with the United States. The image of ‘Israel as the eternal enemy’ is rooted in a psychological barrier, suggesting that Israel, despite its small size, has managed to transform a barren desert into a thriving, cohesive society, despite its internal conflicts and existential challenges, a feat that Egypt has not been able to replicate.”
The article further noted that “In response to Israeli threats, Egypt boasts one of the world’s largest armies, ranking eleventh globally, with a massive air force of 600 aircraft, including 350 fighters, and an armored force with 5,300 tanks. It has a total of 460,000 active-duty soldiers and 480,000 reserves. However, despite these figures, it is clear that Egypt’s military is outdated. Much of its equipment is from the Soviet era, with half of its tanks dating back to that period. While the air force has 168 F-16 fighter jets, the rest are Mirage and MiG-29 models.”
Blanga went on to say that “The breakdown of peace and the outbreak of war between Egypt and Israel would be a red line for the Americans, an event that would lead to a devastating crisis in relations with Washington. This raises questions about Egypt’s ability to sustain a prolonged war if the U.S. cuts off ammunition supplies and spare parts for its military. Can Egypt’s quantity of forces overcome Israel’s technological superiority? The last conflict between the two nations was in 1973.”
However, the Israeli writer added, “Contrary to popular opinion, Egypt, under various regimes—Hosni Mubarak, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi—has chosen to maintain peace with Israel because it forms the basis for domestic stability, cooperation with the West, and the ability to direct budgets toward domestic development.”
The article concluded, “While these reasons do not make Egypt’s military less of a threat, especially with its military buildup in Sinai, there is no need to escalate Israeli rhetoric or create a parallel threat against Egypt. Instead, protests and calls for clarifications can be made through the existing communication channels between Tel Aviv and Cairo, as peace, in the end, is a mutual interest.”
