An article by Israeli journalist Dani Zaken, published in Israel Hayom, discusses how both Saudi Arabia and Israel see former U.S. President Donald Trump as a more favorable partner compared to the current administration. Both nations are reportedly waiting for Trump’s expected return to the White House before finalizing a normalization agreement.
Zaken writes, “There will be no normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia before Donald Trump assumes office, despite ongoing preparations, discussions, and deliberations among Trump’s team, Israel, and other stakeholders.”
The Roadblocks to Normalization
According to Zaken, a Saudi diplomat noted that efforts to finalize a deal during the Biden administration faced significant challenges, particularly due to the need for U.S. Congressional approval. Republicans, traditionally less inclined to approve such agreements, pose a potential hurdle.
However, sources suggest that both Biden and Trump decided to remove the issue from the immediate agenda during the transition. The focus has shifted to a broader Middle East restructuring plan in light of the region’s changing power dynamics, particularly after the October 7 war and recent Israeli gains against Hezbollah and Iran.
Trump’s Role and Regional Ambitions
Trump’s return to power is seen as pivotal for advancing normalization efforts. His envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, has reportedly held recent meetings with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). According to Zaken, Witkoff’s engagement underscores Trump’s strategy to build a broad coalition, starting with a trilateral agreement involving Israel, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia.
This agreement would focus on security, including a mutual defense pact and discussions about a Saudi civilian nuclear program. A second, more ambitious plan would aim to include regional players from the Gulf to Lebanon, potentially encompassing development projects similar to Trump’s “Deal of the Century” but on a much larger scale.
Economic and Regional Development Initiatives
The second level of the plan involves comprehensive economic and regional development. Gulf states are expected to fund major initiatives in weaker nations such as Jordan, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories.
However, a key sticking point remains the Palestinian issue. The Saudis have repeatedly emphasized that resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, including the establishment of a Palestinian state, is a prerequisite for normalization. Despite this, they harbor deep mistrust of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which they view as corrupt and inefficient.
In a meeting in Riyadh earlier this year involving senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestinian intelligence, the Saudis demanded significant reforms within the PA. Changing the Palestinian prime minister was reportedly part of President Mahmoud Abbas’s response to these demands, with further progress contingent on Trump’s re-election.
Israeli Coalition’s Challenges
In Israel, the current coalition under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces internal resistance to the idea of a Palestinian state, even as a mere symbolic gesture. Netanyahu’s far-right allies oppose any concessions, including PA involvement in administering Gaza.
As Zaken writes, “When negotiations progress to the final stages, Netanyahu will likely face a dilemma: pursue a historic agreement that could reshape the Middle East, even at the cost of breaking up his coalition, or maintain Israel’s control over Gaza and the West Bank, freezing the current situation.”
Saudi Conditions for Palestinian Reforms
The Saudis’ conditions for Palestinian reforms are not limited to leadership changes but extend to systemic shifts in governance and behavior. They have explicitly linked their support for normalization with Israel to the PA’s willingness to enact “far-reaching changes” and address longstanding inefficiencies.
Recent operations in Jenin against Islamic Jihad and Hamas are viewed as steps toward meeting these conditions. However, the deeper issue lies in convincing the Israeli government to make any tangible concessions, a prospect that remains politically fraught under the current coalition.
