The French newspaper Le Monde has reported that the decisive advances achieved by the Syrian revolution, culminating in the capture of major cities and reaching Damascus, have effectively thwarted the UAE’s plans in Syria. The downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marked a turning point that disrupted years of covert UAE influence in the region.
Assad’s Reliance on UAE Support
According to Le Monde, Assad, in his final stages as head of the ruling regime in Damascus, heavily relied on UAE support. He viewed it as his trump card to resist the Syrian revolution and avoid concessions to Turkey and the opposition. Before the launch of the “Operation to Deter Aggression,” Assad had dismissed numerous initiatives urging wide-scale political reforms and adherence to the 2020 Astana Agreement. He also rejected calls for dialogue with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was a key backer of the Syrian opposition.
UAE’s Role Behind the Scenes
Le Monde highlighted that Assad believed he had bargaining chips to avoid making compromises, largely thanks to UAE support since 2018. The UAE had paved the way for Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League, an event realized in 2023. Countries like Jordan and Iraq joined the UAE in supporting Syria’s “sovereignty” following the fall of Aleppo. Notably, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed personally reached out to Assad during this period.
Behind the scenes, Abu Dhabi actively lobbied the United States to lift sanctions imposed on the Assad regime. These sanctions had effectively placed Syria under an economic blockade, preventing any reconstruction efforts. The UAE’s broader goal was to curtail Iranian influence in regime-controlled territories by rekindling ties with Damascus.
Strategic Arab-UAE Calculations
The French report emphasized that the Arab rapprochement, led by the UAE, was driven by practical considerations. These included limiting Iranian influence, managing borders, and addressing the Syrian refugee crisis. However, Assad consistently resisted these overtures, showing reluctance to alter his alliances or strategies.
The UAE, which staunchly opposes political Islam, viewed the rise of armed Islamist factions with concern. Arab states feared the “domino effect” that a newly shaped Damascus might trigger across the region.
UAE’s Role in Assad’s Exit
In a dramatic turn of events, international media revealed that the UAE played a mediatory role in securing a safe passage for Assad out of Damascus after his regime’s collapse. According to a report by Bloomberg, Assad, during his final days in power, made desperate attempts to secure his position. He offered deals to Western powers, including severing Syria’s ties with Iranian-backed groups, in exchange for halting opposition advances.
The report stated that Abu Dhabi conveyed Assad’s proposals to the United States. Assad expressed readiness to negotiate an agreement allowing him to retain control over certain territories or ensure a safe exile, which was ultimately facilitated through UAE mediation.
Opposition’s Triumph and Assad’s Fall
In a historic announcement, the Syrian armed opposition declared the fall of Assad’s regime and the entry of its forces into Damascus. This came after a series of swift victories in Aleppo, Hama, and Homs. On December 8th, Bashar al-Assad fled the country. In scenes reminiscent of other cities, protesters toppled statues of Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000, as well as those of his son Bashar.
UAE’s Push for Normalization with Assad’s Regime
Over the years, the UAE spearheaded Arab and international efforts to normalize relations with Assad’s regime and ease its international isolation. The UAE reopened its embassy in Damascus on December 27, 2018. This was followed by several visits by Assad and Syrian government delegations to the UAE, signaling a new chapter in their diplomatic relations.
Conclusion
The downfall of Assad’s regime and the triumph of the Syrian revolution have exposed the intricate web of UAE’s involvement in Syria. While Abu Dhabi’s efforts to reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape met with initial success, the resilience of the Syrian revolution ultimately derailed these plans, marking a pivotal moment in the region’s history.
