Wide-scale concerns have emerged in Israeli circles and among various political regimes in the region over the potential fallout from the collapse of the ousted Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad and the revolution that has reshaped the country. These fears center on the far-reaching implications for the entire Middle East.
Unexpected Military Shifts in Israel
According to Avi Ashkenazi, the military correspondent for the Israeli newspaper Maariv, Israel’s Air Force Commander, Major General Tomer Bar, was scheduled to hold a series of meetings with military reporters on Thursday morning. However, shortly before midnight on Wednesday, all scheduled activities were abruptly canceled. In silence, a new agenda was adopted, reminiscent of wartime preparations.
Ashkenazi noted that, as Syrian revolutionaries advanced early in the uprising, long before they took Aleppo or began moving south towards Damascus, the Israeli Air Force and Military Intelligence Division were finalizing “Operation Bashan Arrow.” This plan targeted Syria’s extensive and highly advanced air-defense systems, considered among the densest globally and a nightmare for any foreign air force considering an attack on Syria or its surroundings.
Strategic Air Superiority
The initial phase of Israel’s plan involved systematically neutralizing Syria’s air-defense systems, creating an unprecedented reality in the Middle East. For the first time in nearly 60 years, the Israeli Air Force achieved complete and unchallenged air superiority over large parts of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
The second phase involved targeting over 350 critical military assets on the ground. These included:
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- Syrian Air Force combat aircraft.
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- 15 modern Syrian missile ships.
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- Stockpiles of long-range and various other types of missiles.
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- Artillery batteries, tank brigades, intelligence units, and command centers.
With the assistance of naval forces, the Israeli Air Force destroyed approximately 80% of the Syrian army, marking a seismic shift in the region’s military landscape.
The Ripple Effects of the Syrian Civil War
While Israel considers the elimination of Syria’s military capabilities a positive development, Ashkenazi warns of a highly unpredictable “second phase.” The Middle East, likened to a boiling cauldron, is now experiencing aftershocks from the conflict.
The civil war in Syria has not only displaced millions, sending refugees across Europe, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq, but also created a volatile human landscape. Among the refugees are members of various factions, ranging from opposition groups to innocent civilians who narrowly escaped the horrors of war. Ashkenazi compares them to a grenade with the pin pulled—still in hand but ready to explode.
The concern, he explains, is that these refugees and opposition groups could inspire uprisings elsewhere in the region. From Jordan, with its fragile monarchy, to Iraq’s tenuous democracy, and even renewed movements by the Muslim Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Egypt, the reverberations of Syria’s collapse could destabilize neighboring countries.
Regional Coordination Amid Growing Tensions
Ashkenazi reveals that the escalating situation has prompted intense discussions between regional governments. Egypt, for instance, urgently requested meetings with Israeli officials, including Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, who spent hours in talks with their Egyptian counterparts. With the region’s new reality, Halevi and Bar are likely to become frequent travelers, engaging in diplomatic efforts across the region, particularly in Gulf capitals.
Anticipated Security Measures and Iranian Reactions
Ashkenazi anticipates preemptive security operations across the region in the coming days. Regional police and intelligence units are expected to act decisively against separatist or extremist Islamist groups to prevent Syria’s chaos from spilling over into their territories. He also notes concerns within Israel that developments in Syria could embolden actors in the West Bank to escalate their activities.
Simultaneously, Iran is expected to respond to the blows it has suffered. Ashkenazi outlines two potential Iranian strategies:
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- Accelerating its nuclear program, potentially becoming a nuclear-capable state within weeks.
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- Instigating uprisings in Jordan, which could compel intervention from the United States and Israel.
Israel is also determined to prevent Iran from establishing advanced outposts along its eastern borders or enabling Hezbollah’s resurgence in Lebanon. The recent Israeli military campaign in Syria dealt Hezbollah a significant blow, raising doubts about its ability to rearm effectively.
A Strategic Crossroads for Israel
Ashkenazi concludes by emphasizing that Israel now faces the urgent task of conducting a comprehensive strategic review to adapt to the new reality. However, this critical moment is complicated by internal political dynamics, as Israel’s political leadership remains preoccupied with partisan considerations. This has led to tension between the political and military leadership, with politicians attempting to claim credit for military operations carried out by the army during this transformative period.
A New Middle East: Opportunities and Risks
The fall of the Syrian regime and the near-total destruction of its military have reshaped the strategic landscape in the Middle East. While Israel has secured unprecedented air superiority and neutralized significant threats, the region’s inherent volatility, combined with Iran’s ambitions and the potential for widespread unrest, presents ongoing challenges. As Ashkenazi warns, the next steps taken by regional and international players will determine whether this moment ushers in greater stability or plunges the Middle East into further chaos.
