Israeli Assessment: Half of Hezbollah’s Strength Affected, Syria is the Next Phase

Israeli assessments indicate that nearly half of Hezbollah’s strength has been impacted during recent fighting, preceding the announcement of the latest ceasefire. These developments come amid warnings directed at Syria and preparations by the Israeli military for the next stage of its strategy.

According to Avi Ashkenazi, the military correspondent for the Israeli newspaper Maariv, the Israeli army is sending messages to Damascus, urging it to refrain from aiding Hezbollah’s recovery and rearmament. He added that “estimates confirm that half of Hezbollah’s power has been affected during the conflict.”

Ashkenazi stated:

“The Israeli army is determined to enforce the new agreement and prevent Hezbollah from moving southward towards the Litani River.” He further emphasized that messages are being directed at Syria, cautioning against providing assistance to Hezbollah.

A senior Israeli military official was quoted saying:

“We are committed to ensuring that Hezbollah cannot rebuild its capabilities—whether underground tunnels, missile production, or surveillance posts.”

Significant Losses for Hezbollah

Maariv reported that Hezbollah has suffered significant losses, particularly among its combat forces, during the recent conflict. The Israeli army, approximately two months ago, shifted from a defensive posture to an offensive one. This transition inflicted severe blows to Hezbollah’s leadership, operational capabilities, and its elite Radwan Forces, which have been a critical component of its military structure.

Netanyahu’s Warnings to Syria

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stark warning to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, stating:

“We systematically prevent attempts by Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian army to smuggle weapons into Lebanon. Assad must understand that he is playing with fire.”

Intensified Strikes in Syria

As preparations for the next phase unfold, reports indicate a significant escalation in Israeli attacks on Syrian territory. These attacks aim to undermine Hezbollah’s logistical and operational infrastructure within Syria.

Recent strikes have been characterized by their extraordinary intensity, targeting Syrian air defenses, military infrastructure, industrial facilities, defense laboratories, and ammunition depots.

The newspaper noted that Netanyahu’s threats followed assessments suggesting that the Syrian regime was contemplating a significant response. However, Syria remains hesitant about the timing and scale of any retaliation, leading to Netanyahu’s explicit warning that such a response could trigger a major escalation or even a full-scale war.

Key Takeaways:

1. Hezbollah’s Diminished Strength: The conflict has significantly impacted Hezbollah’s manpower and operational capacities, particularly its elite forces.

1. Focus on Syria: Israel is intensifying its efforts to undermine Hezbollah’s logistical and military infrastructure in Syria, viewing the country as a critical support hub for the group.

1. Warnings to Assad: Netanyahu’s statements reflect Israel’s determination to prevent Syria, Iran, or Hezbollah from rebuilding their military capabilities, emphasizing the risk of further escalation.

1. Escalation Risks: The potential for a broader conflict looms as Israel increases the severity of its military operations, while Syria weighs its options for retaliation.

This ongoing scenario highlights the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the strategic importance of both Lebanon and Syria in the wider conflict dynamics. Let me know if any additional details or focus areas are needed!