Qatar has been involved in complicated issues from the US-Taliban talks to the Israel-Palestine conflict, hosting Hamas leaders for many years.
But the ongoing Gaza war has severely tested this Gulf state’s commitment to continuing its Israel-Hamas mediation, which requires dealing with an unhinged Israel and a determined Hamas.
Last week, Qatar’s foreign ministry announced it would suspend its mediation role for an indefinite period due to continuing deadlock between Israel and Hamas, adding that this decision does not amount to Doha’s complete “withdrawal from mediation” in light of the Palestinian issue being central to the Gulf country’s foreign policy.
“Qatar notified the parties 10 days ago during the last attempts to reach an agreement that it would stall its efforts to mediate between Hamas and Israel if an agreement was not reached in the round,” said the ministry, adding that Doha will “resume” its mediation efforts when both parties “show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war” in the Palestinian enclave, home to more than two million people.
Since securing the release of 105 Israeli hostages in exchange of 240 Palestinian captives in November last year with a weeklong truce, the Qatari mediation struggled to navigate the Benjamin Netanyahu government’s delay tactics, says Mahjoob Zweiri, a professor of Contemporary History at Qatar University.
Speaking to media, Zweiri says Netanyahu used delay tactics, anticipating Trump’s electoral victory, which he expected to utilise into expanding the war against Palestinians.
Netanyahu’s belligerent agenda
“Let’s not forget that Netanyahu wants the mediation to achieve his own goal of the war,” says the professor, noting that the Israeli prime minister criticised the Egyptian and Qatari mediations because those facilitators did not serve his extremist political agenda.
Netanyahu demands certain concessions from Hamas, which neither Egypt nor Qatar could provide him, according to Zweiri. As a result, Qatar has decided to send a message that Doha will not be part of Israel-Hamas mediation “until the two parties show goodwill that they are sincerely aiming for a solution,” he says.
Sami Barhoum, a Gaza-based Palestinian journalist, sees Qatar mediation suspension as a “tactical” move, which is designed to await Trump’s upcoming agenda “to build a new vision in dealing with the issue of mediation”, adding that Doha took the suspension decision to avoid a head-to-head confrontation with the next Trump administration and Israel.
Luciana Zaccara, a research associate professor of Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, assesses that with its recent suspension from the Gaza talks, the Gulf country signals to protect its positive reputation on good offices in the international arena.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s bellicose approach to the Gaza war has blocked many peace attempts so far. Zaccara says that “after a year of stalemate in the negotiations, the effectiveness and usefulness of continuing such efforts without results may damage the image of successful mediator that Qatar has enjoyed so far,” referring to Doha’s mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas since October 7.
In the past, Qatar played a major role in US-Taliban negotiations, which led to the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, effectively paving the way for the Afghan group’s ascendancy to power in Kabul. Qatar-mediated Taliban-US talks elicited much praise in the international community including the UN Security Council, one of the powerful global bodies.
Despite various setbacks in Israel-Hamas talks, Qatar will not withdraw from this difficult mediation due to the centrality of Palestinian issue to the Gulf country’s foreign policy, Zaccara says.
“But it is equally difficult to see both parties and negotiators to sit together again and Qatar will not come back until there is a clear signal coming from Israel,” he says, adding that Trump’s victory will further embolden Netanyahu to intensify the war.
The professor is not very optimistic on the future of negotiations as there was no real progress during the whole year. “The situation can not get worse,” he says. While there has been no positive development, Qatar-led channels of communication at least helped the two opposing sides “transmit” their respective messages to each other, he adds.
Impact on Hamas leadership in Doha
Qatar’s decision to stall its mediation might have a serious impact on Hamas, as some of its decision-makers resides in the Gulf country.
“The mediators in the region want to take proactive steps before Trump takes power so that there is no political crisis between Qatar and the US, given that for months there have been American attempts led by the country’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken to pressure the Qataris to expel Hamas leaders,” Barhoum tells TRT World.
While an unnamed Qatar official said that Hamas’ political office in the Gulf state “no longer serves its purpose” according to Reuters, the Palestinian group’s officials stated that they are not informed by Doha on the suspension’s effects on the resistance leadership.
Zaccara does not see that Qatar will “expel” Hamas leaders from Doha because “they officially remain within the mediation.” As a result, “it would be detrimental for Qatar” to take such an action since the Palestinian cause has been a cornerstone of Qatar’s foreign policy for many decades.
But Barhoum states that the Hamas leadership is “now looking for countries to reposition leaders” in the movement’s Shura, which equals to the group’s politburo, as well as other members of its organisational, political, and administrative councils.
Mossad pursues Hamas leaders across the world, so the group seeks a country which can provide security guarantees to protect its members from Israeli attacks, says Barhoum, pointing out that the organisational and political situation within the Palestinian organisation has become more complex following the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran.
“All eyes are on countries with good relations, including Türkiye, Algeria, Mauritania, Malaysia, and Russia,” he says. Among those countries, Ankara might play a key role for a Gaza breakthrough due to the fact that Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have good relations, he adds.
Hamas appreciates Qatar’s “important role over the decades in supporting the Palestinians in Gaza, embracing Hamas leaders and providing significant logistical and financial support in the last decade in particular,” says the Gaza-based journalist.
