The Times reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might seize the opportunity, as the Biden era nears its end, to strike Iran before Trump’s peace plans commence.
The report, translated by Arabi21, stated that the United States had prepared six B-52 bombers on Thursday to help deter an anticipated Iranian attack on Israel and sent dozens of F-15 fighters to Jordan to intercept drones and cruise missiles: just another busy day at the American airbase in Lakenheath, Suffolk.
President-elect Trump is confident in his ability to bring about a golden peace in the Middle East, but in the two months at least preceding his inauguration, Iran and Israel are gearing up for a fierce battle.
One of the signs of the direction things are moving was Netanyahu’s dismissal this week of his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This was an unusual move amidst the war, but Netanyahu’s hardline coalition partners considered Gallant too weak and skeptical of achieving a complete Israeli victory.
What kept him in his position was a strong link to the American Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin. Now, as Biden heads for the exit, so does Austin. If there is a comprehensive push to win against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, this is the time. Biden’s “red lines” no longer hold.
The report added, “Could Trump have told Netanyahu: Do what you need to do but do it quickly? If Iran strikes Israel and Israel retaliates with a strike on Iran’s nuclear or oil infrastructure, then Trump 2.0 will begin his term with an escalating war, a war that limits his room for maneuver. And the truth is that he seems to have an interest in avoiding the war.”
His envoy to the Middle East during his first term was his son-in-law Jared Kushner. With briefings from Henry Kissinger, he succeeded in persuading Bahrain and the UAE to recognize Israel. Egypt and Jordan had already recognized it.
If it is possible to engage Saudi Arabia, then the United States would have engineered a containment policy against Iran.
Perhaps the alleged normalization agreements were a safer means than the diplomatic efforts made by Barack Obama to bribe Iran to abandon its nuclear program, as Boyz states. For Trump, it was a step closer to the Nobel Peace Prize he still longs for. Kushner, who stood on the platform with Trump at the victory ceremony, could be called upon to complete his mission.
The newspaper pointed out that the attack launched by Hamas against Israel on October 7 last year had put an end to the normalization agreements. And so did Israel’s response, in bombing Gaza.
Trump’s renewed strategy in the Middle East now depends on Kushner’s ability to persuade the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, to ease the demands for a Palestinian state. It’s a real issue for the prince but one that his ailing father, King Salman, clings to passionately. When the king dies, there could be a diplomatic opportunity that allows his son to offer some partial concessions.
According to the Crown Prince, what he really wants is whether his country should find its own nuclear answer to Iran’s project. How? When? With the help of the United States, or despite it?
Kushner could intervene by pressuring Netanyahu. Until now, Netanyahu has been more open to pressure from Trump compared to Biden or Obama.
Does this add to the Middle East policy? For Trump, it has the advantage of avoiding deeper involvement in a chaotic regional war, maintaining the United States’ status as a steady ally of Israel, a modernization hero in the Arab world, and a balance to China, which has been silently expanding its footprint in the Middle East.
But it heavily depends on the goodwill of politicians like the Crown Prince. And it does not take into account surprises from Iran or the covert support of Russia to break sanctions on Tehran.
Iran has made significant efforts to build alliances hostile to the West. It has a strong friend in China, though not a committed one, and despite the damages inflicted on Hamas and Hezbollah, it retains the capability to disrupt global trade. The Houthis in Yemen could block maritime traffic and launch drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
Trump could try to extract the United States from the Middle East, and many Americans would thank him for that. But first, he must help protect Israel from attack and work harder to stop Iran’s rise as a nuclear-armed state.
