A recent article in the Wall Street Journal emphasized Hezbollah’s ability to turn its conflict with the Israeli occupation into a “long-term struggle,” despite the painful blows it has endured during Israel’s aggression on Lebanese territories.
In the piece authored by Jared Malsin and translated by Arabi21, it was noted that even after enduring a series of painful strikes from Israel, Hezbollah continues to resist by setting ambushes for Israeli forces in Lebanon and intensifying drone and rocket strikes deep within Israeli territory.
The article explains that these attacks demonstrate that despite being weakened by Israeli strikes that have killed a generation of its top leaders and destroyed some of its weaponry, Hezbollah is still capable of transforming the most intense conflict in Lebanon in decades into a prolonged struggle for Israel.
During the weekend, a drone strike by Hezbollah hit the residence of the Israeli Prime Minister in Caesarea, central Israel, over 40 miles from the Lebanese border. This marked the second instance within a week where the group showcased its ability to penetrate Israel’s air defenses using drones, according to the article.
Days earlier, a similar attack resulted in the killing of four Israeli soldiers at a base housing an elite military unit, also located in central Israel.
On Monday, Hezbollah released video footage it claimed showed the shelling of a group of Israeli soldiers in the village of Ramyah, southern Lebanon. The footage, apparently captured from the missile itself, depicted the use of anti-tank guided missiles, a type of weapon that was highly effective for the group during its last war with Israel in 2006.
The article also highlighted that Hezbollah has recently increased the pace of its rocket fire, launching 200 rockets and shells daily over the weekend and 140 on Tuesday, as per reports from the Israeli military. In previous weeks, the average daily count was only a few dozen.
While the number of Hezbollah’s rocket launches remains lower than what Israeli officials anticipated in the event of a full-scale war, this is seen as a sign of the group’s deteriorated capabilities. The Israeli military claims that most of these attacks are intercepted by their air defenses, costing approximately $100,000 per drone and up to several million dollars per intercepted missile.
Nevertheless, Hezbollah continues to showcase its ability to regroup quickly under pressure. Military analysts have pointed out that its armed units are trained to operate with a certain level of autonomy, making it easier for them to continue fighting even when top commanders are killed, and internal communications are disrupted, as noted by the writer.
The article stressed that this resilience increases the risk of Israel being drawn into a prolonged and bloody conflict.
The piece quoted Rim Tamtaz, a security analyst based in Paris affiliated with the Carnegie Europe Policy Center, saying, “Hezbollah’s core strategy remains to hold onto its territory in the south against any form of ground invasion or Israeli advance. It’s Hezbollah’s home turf. They know every corner, and they will use this advantage.”
The latest escalation in hostilities followed the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza by Israel, an incident that some analysts believed could provide a way out for Netanyahu to end conflicts in both Gaza and Lebanon. However, the following day, Netanyahu declared that the war would continue, while Hezbollah vowed to escalate its response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon.
The author noted that Israeli leaders have begun to speak of more ambitious objectives for their recent offensive, alongside their initial goal of securing northern Israeli communities. This week, the Israeli military conducted airstrikes on a Hezbollah-affiliated bank branch, which Israeli officials claimed aimed to undermine the Islamic group’s support base.
An Israeli military official stated, “The fighting there is extremely complex. The goal is to significantly cripple Hezbollah to alter the balance of power in Lebanon,” according to the article.
So far, Israel has been able to exploit its advantages, including air power and advanced intelligence and surveillance operations, to put Hezbollah on the defensive. Military analysts have suggested that Israeli strikes have weakened Hezbollah’s missile capabilities.
According to the article, Israeli surveillance, including electronic eavesdropping and drones constantly hovering over Lebanon, has made it difficult for the group to use its medium- and long-range rocket launch platforms. These platforms require more time to set up compared to short-range weapons, making them vulnerable to Israeli airstrikes once detected.
At the end of September, the Israeli military announced that it had destroyed about 50% of Hezbollah’s rocket stockpile.
Military analysts and diplomats indicated that Hezbollah is still capable of importing more weapons to replace those destroyed, particularly through the Syrian border, and has processes in place to replace high-ranking leaders who have been assassinated.
The article quoted Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and a former U.S. government official, who said, “Hezbollah is an adaptable group. They are very smart, very determined. They are willing to endure losses. I would never write Hezbollah off, but I think they have taken a significant hit.”
Hezbollah has shown it can extend its attacks deep into Israeli territory. During the week beginning on September 22nd, roughly a week after Israel’s use of paging devices for signaling attacks, Hezbollah’s strikes averaged about 17 miles into Israel, according to data compiled by the Armed Conflict Event & Location Data Project (ACLED) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. This is significantly higher than the previous year’s average of about 2.4 miles for cross-border engagements.
The writer suggested that the real test for both the Israeli military and Hezbollah would likely arise if Israeli leaders decide to send their troops deeper into Lebanese territory, where Hezbollah fighters benefit from the home-ground advantage.
Israeli forces have so far entered at least eight villages, all within a mile of the border, according to statements from both Israel and Hezbollah, and verified by Le Beck, an intelligence consulting firm.
Hezbollah forces have responded using remote-detonated explosives, mortars, and rockets, according to Israeli military officials.
Hezbollah claims its approach to the conflict in the south has been to initially pull back before ramping up attacks on invading Israeli soldiers, consistent with its tactics during some of its battles in the 2006 war with Israel. Hezbollah fighters then set ambushes for Israeli troops in towns and villages across the south, as described by former Israeli soldiers and officers who participated in that war.
In a televised speech on October 15th, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, said, “The mission of the resistance is to pursue the army and conduct operations against them wherever they advance. The youth are ready for more and more confrontations.”
The Israeli military reported that 17 of its soldiers had been killed in southern Lebanon, with five more killed in northern Israel and along the Lebanese border, in addition to the four who were killed in a Hezbollah drone raid on an Israeli Golani Brigade base earlier this month. The drone managed to evade detection before striking a dining hall while the soldiers were having dinner, injuring over 60.
The article concluded by noting that drones represent one of the major emerging challenges for Israel. While Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems are designed to counter rocket attacks from Gaza, Lebanon, and more recently, Iran, they have faced difficulties intercepting slow-flying drones.
