Amid fierce battles fought by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, questions arise about its ability to withstand the ongoing brutal Israeli aggression, which has been persistent for almost a month, especially after losing several key leaders within its ranks.
Despite the intense bombardment along the front line, as well as strikes targeting the suburbs and the Bekaa Valley, Hezbollah appears to have maintained its missile capabilities, launching continuous attacks reaching as far as Haifa and Tel Aviv, alongside ongoing battles in the south.
Last Thursday, Hezbollah announced that the resistance had entered a new, escalating phase against the occupation, which would manifest in the coming days.
The statement indicated that the occupation’s losses had reached approximately 55 fatalities and over 500 wounded, among officers and soldiers of the Israeli army. Additionally, 20 Merkava tanks were destroyed, alongside four military bulldozers, an armored vehicle, and a personnel carrier, as well as two “Hermes 450” drones.
Fighting Under Pressure
In a short period, the occupation managed to assassinate top-tier leaders of Hezbollah, possibly the most prominent figures within its command hierarchy, just before the launch of its ground offensive.
On this matter, military expert Major General (Ret.) Majed Al-Qaisi stated that Hezbollah was significantly affected by strong strikes targeting its core, particularly its leadership, ranging from the Secretary-General to top and second-tier commanders. This, in turn, severely impacted its command and control system, a crucial element within the party’s structure.
Speaking to “Arabi21,” he remarked, “The main question following these precise strikes was whether Hezbollah could maintain its cohesion and operational effectiveness.”
He elaborated, “In the past, Hezbollah has lost senior leaders but managed to replace them later. This time, it lost leaders all at once, within a few short days. These were historical figures with extensive experience in managing battles, organizing, and overseeing significant institutions within the party’s structure, playing multiple roles.”
Al-Qaisi continued, “Despite this, cities within the entity continue to face ongoing and large-scale attacks using missiles and drones, some reaching southern Tel Aviv. This indicates that Hezbollah still possesses substantial weaponry, contradicting Israeli Defense Minister Gallant’s claim that most of the group’s arsenal had been destroyed, leaving only a third remaining.”
He noted that Hezbollah is currently in a challenging phase, trying to regain its balance and prevent the Israeli army from achieving its objectives, which include occupying areas south of the Litani River across a front more than 100 km wide, with a force of up to five divisions. The entity seeks to conclude the battle in southern Lebanon as quickly as possible to avoid getting entangled in a prolonged war.
Last Tuesday, Hezbollah launched a series of operations against Israeli occupation targets in the outskirts of “Tel Aviv” and western Haifa in response to ongoing aggression on Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israeli warplanes carried out heavy raids across various parts of Lebanese territory, including the capital, Beirut.
In a series of statements, Hezbollah declared that its fighters had targeted the Nir Etzion dome and the Galilot base, belonging to Unit 8200 of military intelligence, in the outskirts of “Tel Aviv” with a precise missile barrage.
It added that its fighters had also struck the “Stella Maris” naval base northwest of Haifa with a similar missile barrage. The organization clarified that these operations were “in support of our steadfast Palestinian people in Gaza, in solidarity with their courageous and noble resistance, defending Lebanon and its people, within the framework of the Khaybar operations, and in response to the atrocities committed by the Zionist enemy.”
Replacement of Leaders
As Hezbollah maintains the rhythm of confrontation, both on missile and ground fronts, many believe that the group has succeeded in compensating for the loss of its leaders, as stated by Hezbollah official Naim Qassem mid-month.
The Hebrew newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth” quoted an Israeli official saying that Hezbollah had reinforced its leadership ranks with members whose names were previously unknown to Israel, allowing the group to continue its fight against Israel despite heavy losses.
The Israeli official noted that the new commanders were previously lower-ranking leaders, which contributed to Hezbollah’s ability to conduct military operations despite increasing pressure.
The official pointed out that Hezbollah had achieved notable successes this week, including a deadly airstrike on a Golani Brigade training base and launching a drone towards the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Caesarea. Additionally, five soldiers from the Golani Brigade were killed in southern Lebanon.
For his part, retired Israeli General Itzhak Brik warned in an article on Channel 12 Hebrew website of Hezbollah’s ability to manage a confrontation that challenges “Israel,” cautioning against the military encounters between the two sides escalating into a “war of attrition.”
General Brik stated, “Anyone familiar with our current situation in this war of attrition understands that the government’s goals—namely the total elimination of Hamas, subduing Hezbollah, bending Iran, and severing its connections with its affiliates—are unrealistic. These objectives are nothing more than a divine vision conceived by a few individuals living in a fool’s paradise.”
Brik concluded his article by saying, “Unfortunately, there are many ignorant people in Israel who fail to comprehend the situation or see the real picture of reality before them, either due to ignorance or because they hold onto illusions or wishes that do not align with reality.” He added that “this failing government and the ignorant who follow it, like a herd of fools, will continue leading our state towards an existential threat.”
Military Performance in the South
According to Al-Qaisi, what happened in the southern suburbs at the beginning of the entity’s ground operation impacted Hezbollah fighters’ performance on the southern front. The entity managed to make advances along the border strip, particularly in villages just meters from the Blue Line.
He added, “Hezbollah continues to manage battles on different fronts, inflicting painful losses on the entity through strikes into its depths with drones and missiles. The targeting of the Golani Brigade base near Binyamin, close to Haifa, exemplifies this, where a drone managed to penetrate defenses and kill four soldiers, injuring over 67 soldiers from this brigade, considered the best in the entity’s army, not to mention the attack on Netanyahu’s residence.”
Describing the southern military scene, Al-Qaisi explained that the occupation amassed six divisions on the Lebanese front, deployed as follows:
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- The 210th division stationed at the Galilee finger and Kiryat Shmona, wary of any Hezbollah advance.
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- The 98th division opposite the town of Kfar Kila.
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- The 91st division advanced into Bleda.
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- The 36th division moved towards Maroun al-Ras and Aita al-Shaab, now attempting to reach the villages of Qouzah and Roumieh.
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- The 146th division opposite the Naqoura area, without advancing a single meter.
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- Additionally, four brigades were added, totaling six divisions.
Regaining Balance
Al-Qaisi concluded that this performance indicates that Hezbollah has regained some of its balance, especially in ground battles, suggesting that the group managed to restore a degree of leadership and control that was severely compromised.
He pointed out that the ground battles in southern Lebanon are still in their early stages and serve as a true test of Hezbollah’s capabilities and a measure of its strength, and whether it can prevent the Israeli army from achieving its goals.
Despite the massive mobilization of the occupation, it has failed to secure a significant breakthrough, achieving only minor advances in Bleda with the 91st division and advancing to the vicinity of Aita al-Shaab with the 36th division, which later retreated under Hezbollah fire.
Unanswered Questions
Since the start of the aggression on Gaza and the shift of battle to Lebanon, military and security circles within the occupation have questioned the feasibility of the war and the possibility of achieving its objectives, as well as the fear of it evolving into a prolonged war of attrition.
On this point, the Hebrew news site “Walla” reported that “the Israeli army does not answer the question of the next day in southern Lebanon, especially after weeks of the military operation.”
The site added that the army points to “the government, noting that there are only a few weeks left for ground maneuvers in southern Lebanon, and until now, there has been no political movement on the horizon.”
The army clarifies that any political settlement would require strict enforcement in the border region to establish conditions that would ensure the security of the Israeli home front.
The site stated, “The army refuses to define what such an arrangement would look like on the ground.”
It continued, “It has been more than three weeks since the maneuver in Lebanon began, peaking with five divisions on the ground, and the Israeli Defense Forces conclude, as a temporary summary, that the ground presence in southern Lebanon still has several weeks to go.”
