Hezbollah recently faced severe blows during Israel’s extensive aggression on Lebanon, with the most significant strikes resulting in the assassination of the party’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, along with several political and military leaders. Despite these heavy losses, the missile attacks from Hezbollah on northern Israeli settlements and occupied cities did not cease.
Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, delivered a new speech on Tuesday, the third since Nasrallah’s assassination. He declared that the party had shifted to a strategy of “inflicting pain on the enemy,” stating, “Since the enemy targeted all of Lebanon, Lebanon has the right to target all areas of the enemy.”
A few days ago, Hezbollah launched its most severe strike against Israel, resulting in dozens of Israeli soldiers being killed and injured in a drone swarm attack on a camp near Binyamina, south of Haifa in northern occupied Palestine.
According to Israeli military radio, this attack, which was the most intense operation carried out by Hezbollah since the war began, led to the killing of 3 soldiers and injuring around 67 others, some of whom sustained critical injuries.
Anticipated Scenarios
Observers confirm that Hezbollah managed to restore its military infrastructure after the significant blows it endured and the assassination of several prominent leaders. They note that the party had prepared for such scenarios well before the war began.
Political analyst Mohammad Shams explains that “for years, Hezbollah’s military leadership has been discussing how to handle the initial hours of war, ways to absorb the first wave of strikes and their effects, and have laid out all possible scenarios, including the involvement of high-ranking military leaders.”
In an analysis published on the “Khandak” website, Shams pointed out that Israel had adopted a strategy of assassinating military and field commanders of the resistance since the beginning of the support and backing operations for Gaza from the Lebanese front. This began with the martyrdom of commanders Wissam Al-Tawil, Taleb Abdullah, and Mohammad Naamah, and continued with the assassination of martyrs Fuad Shukr, Ibrahim Aqil, and Ali Karaki.
He stated that Hezbollah’s leadership quickly implemented a pre-prepared plan to protect its military leaders through strict measures concerning their movements and communications. The most critical part of this strategy involved automatically and immediately appointing replacements from among the assistants and aides of the martyred leaders to prevent any disruption or gaps on the battlefield.
He explained, “Everything proceeded as planned, and the party managed to fill all vacant military positions in record time. These assistants and aides of the unit commanders were well-versed in military details, possessing the field and military expertise required to manage the unit during wartime.”
Appointment of Replacements
Shams relayed from a field officer in Hezbollah that “replacements were appointed for the martyred commander of the Nasr unit, Taleb Abdullah, with Haj (A.S.) taking his place. The leader of the Aziz unit, Mohammad Naamah Nasser, was succeeded by Haj (D.A.), and Fuad Shukr was replaced by Haj (A.T.).”
He noted that all attempts by Israel to cut off ties with Iran and halt the flow of weapons and missiles failed, emphasizing that “Iranian military supplies have not stopped for a moment since the war began up to this hour.”
Impact of the Assassinations
An Israeli military expert downplayed the impact of the recent assassinations on Hezbollah’s capabilities and its ongoing operations against northern settlements and military bases, simultaneously calling for a political settlement with Lebanon.
In an article published by the Hebrew newspaper “Haaretz,” Israeli expert Yossi Melman stated, “The assassinations of Ibrahim Aqil, head of Hezbollah operations, and 15 commanders of the elite Radwan force were a remarkable feat, demonstrating the depth of Israeli intelligence penetration.”
However, Melman noted, “In organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah, military structures are reorganized, and senior positions are refilled following assassinations.” He added that “in Israel, there is difficulty in understanding that assassinations effectively rejuvenate the leadership ranks within these organizations.”
He further explained that “Hezbollah carried out a systematic and organized effort, with clear operational plans and a defined chain of command. Assassinations certainly deliver a morale blow, sometimes severe, but the efficacy and impact of such operations are temporary. The evidence of this is that despite the elimination of top figures, Hezbollah continues to function and has even increased its missile range.”
Melman pointed out that Hezbollah maintains the principle of a “punching balance,” refraining from launching long-range missiles. He added that if the escalation continues, it is likely that such missiles will be used soon, leading to the lifting of all restrictions by both sides.
He highlighted, “The martyr commander Ibrahim Aqil of the Radwan unit was replaced by Haj (H.Y.), and the martyr commander Ali Karaki was succeeded by Haj (A.H.).” He clarified that “Hezbollah’s organizational and military structure is built on what is known as ‘clusters’ or ‘circles,’ which rely significantly on their specific capabilities and personnel, without the need to refer to the upper military command except for strategic decisions.”
Political analyst Shams also discussed the fate of Hezbollah’s ballistic and precision missiles, saying, “The party relies on deceiving the enemy by relocating and camouflaging missile platforms. It conducts maneuvers to mislead the enemy, making them believe in the presence of fake platforms or passing on outdated coordinates.”
According to the field officer in Hezbollah, “Despite extensive Israeli intelligence efforts, in collaboration with Western intelligence agencies, and the air force’s bombing of hundreds of locations in the mountains and valleys of the south and Bekaa, the occupation has only managed to destroy 20% of Hezbollah’s capabilities.”
He continued, “Hezbollah has maintained about 80% of its stockpile of ballistic and precision missiles and drones. The battlefield is a clear indicator of this, with the resistance reportedly launching an average of 250 missiles of various types daily on Israeli military and security bases, the most significant of which was the attack on Sunday, 13/10/2024, targeting the ‘Binyamina’ camp for training the Golani elite forces in Haifa, resulting in over 110 casualties among Israeli soldiers and officers.”
