The Israeli intelligence apparatus has been diligently preparing for a potential conflict with Hezbollah; however, it was caught off guard by Hamas’s unexpected attacks on October 7, 2023.
The Wall Street Journal reported that “Israel experienced its most significant intelligence failure in history last year when Hamas launched a sudden assault, resulting in the deaths of over 1,200 people and the capture of approximately 250 Israelis.”
The article further stated, “Today, the Israeli military’s operations against Hezbollah have revitalized the confidence of its intelligence agents, reflecting the extensive preparations Israel has been undertaking for two decades, especially following the 2006 war, to confront the Lebanese militant group and possibly its patron, Iran.”
It claimed that the reason behind the “surprise attack from Hamas was Israel’s underestimation of Hamas as a significant threat compared to Hezbollah. Before the October 7 attacks, Israeli officials dismissed signals of an imminent assault from Gaza.”
The report highlighted that in September, “Israeli intelligence characterized Gaza as being in a state of unstable stability, suggesting that Hamas had shifted its focus away from inciting violence in the West Bank and aimed to reduce confrontation risks with Israel and any retaliatory actions.”
Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, stated, “Our primary focus was on the confrontation with Hezbollah,” adding, “We somewhat neglected the southern region and the evolving situation regarding Hamas in Gaza.”
The article claims, “A series of attacks carried out by Israel against Hezbollah over the past two weeks has left the group in shock regarding Israel’s ability to infiltrate, as it struggled to close security gaps. Thousands of beeper and walkie-talkie devices exploded almost simultaneously over consecutive days last week, resulting in 37 deaths and approximately 3,000 injuries. Shortly thereafter, an airstrike in Beirut eliminated over 12 military leaders in elite units. Hezbollah’s security capabilities remain exposed; on Tuesday, an airstrike killed a commander in the party’s missile unit.”
The Wall Street Journal noted, “These attacks followed nearly two months after Israeli intelligence showcased its capability to infiltrate Hezbollah and eliminate its chief of staff, Fouad Shukr, who had been pursued by the U.S. for four decades, in an airstrike on his apartment in a high-rise building in Beirut, where he received a call shortly before the strike.”
It added that “the intense campaign waged by Israeli foreign intelligence agencies, the Mossad, and military intelligence units has led to the dismantling of Hezbollah’s leadership and a reduction in its arsenal. This was followed by an Israeli airstrike campaign that struck over 2,000 targets this week. The Israeli Chief of Staff announced on Wednesday that the army has intensified its pressure on Hezbollah and is now preparing for a ground operation, while the U.S. and two of its allies are working to halt the fighting and avoid another front, especially as the conflict in Gaza has persisted for 12 months.”
According to figures from the Lebanese Health Ministry, the Israeli attacks have resulted in over 600 Lebanese martyrs and more than 2,000 injuries.
Avner Golov, the former director of the Institute for National Security Studies and currently a researcher at the “Mind” security consulting firm, contrasted “Israel’s success” with Hezbollah to its failure with Hamas, stating that Israeli security services excel in offense but struggle with defense.
He remarked, “The essence of the Israeli intelligence doctrine is to transfer the war to the enemy,” adding, “In Gaza, it was different. We were surprised; thus, it was a failure.”
The report revealed that “Israel has been monitoring Hezbollah’s arsenal buildup since the two sides agreed to a truce in 2006 after a 34-day war. At that time, many in the Israeli security establishment were disappointed with the army’s performance in the conflict, as it failed to inflict substantial damage on Hezbollah, which began to rebuild its positions in the south.”
The occupying forces attempted to understand Hezbollah and stifle its military and financial support from Iran, including through airstrike campaigns in Syria, often referred to as the “war between wars.”
In contrast to Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu adopted a strategy of containment regarding Hamas, believing the group was concentrating its efforts on governing Gaza rather than confronting Israel.
The report emphasized, “The two sides have engaged in multiple wars since the movement took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, and the leader of the movement in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, appeared focused on managing the sector and improving its economic conditions.”
There were indications of Hamas preparing for a military operation, and the military maneuvers conducted by Hamas months prior to the attack were overlooked. Israeli intelligence viewed these as attempts to display strength to local audiences in the sector.
Security officials believed that the security barrier was robust and equipped with technology to withstand infiltration attempts. Former Israeli security official Uzi Shay noted that gathering intelligence on Gaza became challenging after Israeli forces withdrew in 2005.
Shay stated, “The ability to build a human intelligence network in Gaza in such a small and densely populated area has become increasingly difficult, as everyone knows each other and can identify any outsider,” whereas it was easier to access individuals in Lebanon or abroad connected to Hezbollah.
The article concluded, “Ultimately, intelligence achievements do not dictate the outcome of the war with Hezbollah or Hamas. In the narrow Gaza Strip, Israeli military forces struck Hamas and destroyed urban and civil infrastructure, and they will face a different adversary in the hills of Lebanon. Despite Israel’s extensive efforts to diminish Hezbollah’s military buildup, the Lebanese militia has managed to amass a vast arsenal it can deploy in warfare.”
Now, the group is considering how to respond to a series of devastating Israeli attacks. Hezbollah launched its first-ever missile at the commercial capital, Tel Aviv, on Wednesday, marking its boldest response yet, but it has not yet fully unleashed all its capabilities.
