In the past day, Israel has launched a series of air strikes throughout Lebanon.
The death toll among Lebanese citizens has reached hundreds, with many more injured and thousands displaced as families search for safer areas.
The Israeli military has described this as part of a “new phase” in its conflict with Gaza, claiming to have targeted over 1,000 sites in Lebanon, which it alleges are Hezbollah strongholds or military sites located within civilian structures.
What has transpired?
According to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, at least 558 Lebanese individuals have lost their lives, including 50 children and 94 women. Approximately 2,000 others have sustained injuries. This represents one of the most intense assaults Lebanon has experienced since the civil war from 1975 to 1990, with more than 10,000 people forced to flee their homes.
The initial strikes occurred on Monday at 6:30 a.m., targeting an uninhabited area near Byblos, north of Beirut, followed by over 1,300 attacks on what Israel labeled Hezbollah military installations. The strikes continue to this day.
Which areas in Lebanon are under attack?
Satellite imagery from Al Jazeera indicates a widespread pattern of attacks across Lebanon, particularly concentrated in the south and the Bekaa Valley, where Hezbollah’s presence is notably strong.
Prior to the bombardment, the Israeli army reportedly made around 80,000 phone calls to residents, primarily in the southern regions, advising them to evacuate and seek safety. This led to widespread panic, creating significant traffic congestion on the main coastal route to Beirut as residents attempted to escape the impending strikes.
What is the reason behind Israel’s attacks on Lebanon?
Israel claims it is targeting Hezbollah to facilitate the safe return of its displaced citizens to the north. On Wednesday, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced a strategic shift of “forces, resources, and energy” towards Hezbollah, suggesting a potential de-escalation in Gaza.
Gallant’s remarks implied a goal to return approximately 65,000 Israelis who had been evacuated in anticipation of attacks from Hezbollah near the Lebanese border. While a major Hezbollah offensive did not materialize, there has been a consistent exchange of fire between the two parties since October 2023.
Hezbollah has vowed to continue its assaults until Israel reaches a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. During a news briefing on Monday night, an Israeli military spokesperson did not exclude the possibility of a ground invasion of Lebanon, stating, “We will do whatever is necessary to ensure the safe return of all our citizens to the northern border.”
Is this connected to last week’s pager incidents?
It seems so. On September 17, just before Gallant’s announcement of a “new phase,” an attack widely attributed to Israel resulted in the detonation of hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah members. Israel did not comment on the incident.
The following day, another strike targeted Hezbollah’s walkie-talkie communications, resulting in the deaths of 37 individuals, including two children, and inflicting injuries on thousands. These strikes compromised Hezbollah’s communication capabilities and reportedly weakened their morale.
Following these events, exchanges of fire have intensified, including a devastating strike by Israel in southern Beirut on Saturday that killed 45 people and injured many more.
How serious is this situation?
Extremely serious. The alliances between Israel and Hezbollah have the potential to draw in other nations. The United States, a key ally of Israel, has announced the deployment of additional troops to the region, although specifics regarding the number and purpose remain unclear. Currently, around 40,000 US troops are present in the area.
Since its inception in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Hezbollah has collaborated closely with Iran. Israel has framed its conflicts with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah as part of a broader struggle against Iran.
While Israel has never confirmed possessing nuclear weapons, it is estimated to have around 90 nuclear warheads. Conversely, Iran, although not yet nuclear-armed, is believed to be close to achieving that status following the dissolution of an agreement to limit its nuclear program by former US President Donald Trump in 2018. Iran also boasts one of the largest and most powerful military forces in the region and maintains alliances with groups such as Yemen’s Houthis and Gaza’s Hamas.
What might provoke other nations to get involved?
Both the US and Iran have demonstrated awareness of the potential risks that escalation could bring. Despite provocative actions by Israel, including an air strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus in April 2024 and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, Iran’s responses have remained muted.
Retaliation to the April air strike was largely anticipated and intercepted, and no counteraction has occurred in response to Haniyeh’s killing. The US, despite its unwavering support for Israel, has also been cautious about escalation risks, with diplomats continuing to facilitate indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel aimed at establishing a ceasefire.
What is Israel’s objective?
For many in Israel, prolonged tension and conflict with Hezbollah seem inevitable. As the situation in Gaza continues and the death toll there surpasses 41,455, critics accuse Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of escalating the conflict for his political advantage.
Families of those captured by Hamas on October 7 have criticized the Prime Minister for hindering ceasefire negotiations, concerns echoed by President Biden in June.
Political analyst Ori Goldberg remarked from Tel Aviv before the latest strike, “At present, the region is experiencing a high-stakes game of chicken. This conflict is often presented as an inevitability, one that Israeli leadership can avoid responsibility for, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
