The US named the UAE a major defense partner on Monday, a step that could make it eligible to purchase more sophisticated US weapons and technology, as tensions in the Middle East soar.
The announcement came after US President Joe Biden met with United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan at the White House. The UAE is the only other state besides India to achieve the designation.
The White House said the move “will allow for unprecedented cooperation through joint training, exercises, and military-to-military collaboration, between the military forces of the US, the UAE, and India,” in a statement.
The designation reflects the US’s desire to keep the UAE in its camp despite tensions over its role in the Sudanese Civil War, its economic links to Russia and military ties to China.
The US has been pushing the UAE to curtail its military support for the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, a paramilitary that Biden has accused of ethnic cleansing.
The White House’s top Middle East official, Brett McGurk is expected to hold a meeting with Emirati officials on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week to discuss the UAE’s military support for the group, but is unlikely to press the matter as tensions rise in the region, a senior US official told Middle East Eye.
On Monday, fighting between Hezbollah and Israel escalated with Israeli strikes killing at least 356 people across Lebanon and Hezbollah striking near Haifa.
“Sudan is unlikely to be in the top five priorities for this visit. On foreign policy, the war in Gaza and Iran will likely headline though certainly Sudan will be discussed,” Elizabeth Dent, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former Pentagon official told MEE.
“[But] the UAE cares about US concerns over their support for the RSF, and will listen to Harris’s views to see how she will handle the situation if she is elected,” she added.
With Biden’s days in the White House numbered, the oil-rich Gulf state is already shoring up its position in Washington for when the next US president sits in the Oval Office.
‘Economy first’
Just two years ago, Nahyan refused to speak with Biden amid anger that the US was inching closer to a nuclear deal with Iran and failing to rein in the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. For its part, the US accused the UAE of allowing Russia to sidestep US sanctions and inching closer to China militarily.
The UAE’s top goal is to balance deeper security ties and economic cooperation with the US while cementing its autonomy to operate in hotspots like Sudan; an objective it appears to have acheived after the Nahyan-Biden meeting.
“Economy first, prosperity first,” Anwar Gargash, Nahyan’s diplomatic advisor, said in a press conference last week laying out the UAE’s vision for its “strategic relationship” with the US.
Gargash said the UAE would not ignore “things happening in Gaza or things happening in other areas”, but that the “UAE is trying to move more along an economic and technological view”.
Artificial Intelligence has emerged as a key area of cooperation between the US and UAE.
The UAE has put AI at the centre of its efforts to diversify its economy away from oil and the US’s advancements in AI surpass rivals Russia and China.
US-listed Nvidia has become one of the world’s most valuable companies because of the chips it makes for AI. Last week, Emirati-based AI company G42 signed a deal with the US chipmaker to cooperate on climate forecasting.
The UAE takes AI investments seriously.
G42 is chaired by national security advisor Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, a brother of the UAE president who controls the sovereign wealth funds Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and ADQ, both worth over $1.1 trillion.
US-listed Microsoft invested $1.5bn in G42 in April and last week announced plans to build new data centres in Abu Dhabi. But the UAE’s closeness to China has hampered deeper cooperation. Last year, the UAE and other Gulf states were added to a list of countries restricted from freely importing advanced US-made AI chips over concerns about their closeness to China.
On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co have discussed building huge factory complexes in the UAE to produce chips, but are seeking US approval before building the sites.
An Emirati analyst close to officials in Abu Dhabi told Middle East Eye that Nahyan likely didn’t expect a resolution from Biden after the visit, but would like to set the tone among policymakers and officials with an eye towards a new US administration after this year’s elections.
The analyst said “it is with the deep state” where the UAE hoped to build trust and eventually relax restrictions.
At the same time, the UAE is putting billions of dollars into AI and deals are moving ahead.
Last week, MGX, an Abu Dhabi AI firm founded by G42 and Mubadala, another Emirati sovereign wealth fund, announced it was joining with US-listed BlackRock and Microsoft to launch a $30bn fund to invest in data centres.
“The UAE does want to position itself as an AI hub and America is the leader on this,” Anna Jacobs, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst on the Gulf region told MEE. “This visit will focus significantly more on points of cooperation”.
US ‘hand-wringing’ on Sudan
The public emphasis on economic ties and AI cooperation also obscures where the UAE and US are at odds, such as in Sudan, or failing to make progress, such as in the Gaza Strip.
A western official told MEE the US has been “wringing its hands” over the UAE’s support for Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary accused of human rights abuses.
Biden called the war in Sudan “senseless” last week and said the RSF “must stop their assault that is disproportionately harming Sudanese civilians”, addressing a month-long siege of El Fasher, a city of two million people in Darfur. But Biden was careful to also criticise the Sudanese armed forces.
The RSF, which is commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti, is locked in a convoluted proxy war with the Sudanese military that has sucked in the US’s partners and foes.
The Sudanese military is backed by Qatar and Iran, along with Egypt and Russia. Saudi Arabia, an Emirati ally increasingly acting as a rival, has also backed the Sudanese military, according to The New York Times.
The western official who spoke to MEE on the condition of anonymity said many US officials viewed the UAE as the “enabler” to the war, but that the administration was “too distracted” to seriously press Abu Dhabi over its support.
According to the NYT, Vice President Kamala Harris raised the issue in a meeting with Nahyan in December.
The UAE denies supporting the RSF and has bristled at accusations of its role in funding a group the US says is conducting ethnic cleansing. Last year, the US sanctioned Hemeti’s brother, Algoney Hamdan Dagalo, who lives in the UAE, where US officials say the RSF conducts lucrative gold trading.
US seeks Gaza peacekeeping force
Whether Harris or Trump assumes the presidency in January, the US will seek Emirati support for dealing with security in the Red Sea and Gaza. In the former, the UAE’s allies, the Southern Transitional Council, hold the southern coast of Yemen, which some US officials see as a force against the Iran-backed Houthis.
In Gaza, the US and UAE are generally aligned in wanting the conflict to end and preventing its spread to Lebanon, but Emirati officials are becoming frustrated that the US has failed at securing a ceasefire.
“The uniqueness and urgency of this visit relates primarily to Gaza. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are frustrated,” the Crisis Group’s Jacobs told MEE.
Of the three, the UAE has taken the lead in putting itself publicly at the centre of a post-war Gaza. In July, the UAE publicly announced it would send peacekeepers to the Gaza Strip, but it has called for Israel to establish a Palestinian state first.
The UAE also wants the US to back any peacekeeping mission by providing command and control support at the least, or US service members, current and former US officials say.
Analysts say the UAE is frustrated that Israel has not moved towards a ceasefire as fighting in Gaza shifts to Lebanon where Israel has upped its attacks on Hezbollah, detonating thousands of exploding pagers and walk-talkies, killing hundreds and injuring thousands. On Monday, Israel killed more than 270 people in hundreds of air strikes across Lebanon.
While the UAE is no friend to Hezbollah and Iran, analysts say it has no interest in an escalation that could lead to a regional war, derailing the very investments in AI that Nahyan is seeking to build on.
“There is a real concern in the UAE that if this escalates into a multi-front war, the UAE could be harmed. It has a diplomatic relationship with Iran and Israel and a huge economic relationship with Iran,” Jacobs said.
