Early Tuesday morning, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the Security Cabinet decided to expand the current war’s objectives to include the return of northern residents to their homes. These residents have been displaced for 11 months due to the ongoing exchange of cross-border fire with Hezbollah.
According to the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom, the Northern Command recommended establishing a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant believes that military action is the only way to achieve this, especially as chances for an agreement with Hezbollah seem to be fading amid the continuous rocket fire on Israeli territories since the outbreak of the Aqsa Flood.
Faced with growing pressures and a complex situation, Israeli leaders agree on the need for military escalation in Lebanon. They realize that the prospect of a separate settlement with Lebanon, away from the Gaza conflict, is rapidly diminishing. This has prompted them to intensify messaging that Israel plans to escalate pressure on Hezbollah and expand military operations in the north.
As reports and statements swirl about the possibility of war in the north, military and political leaders, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, all agree that military action is necessary to confront the threats in Lebanon.
Why Did Netanyahu Expand the War’s Objectives?
During a visit by U.S. Presidential Envoy Amos Hochstein to Tel Aviv aimed at de-escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah and preventing a regional conflict, Netanyahu emphasized that “Israel will do whatever is necessary to ensure the safe return of northern residents,” despite American warnings against launching a war on Lebanon.
Hochstein met with Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and opposition leader Yair Lapid. Netanyahu stated that the return of residents depends on a “radical improvement in security conditions,” while Gallant stressed that “the military option is the only solution left.”
Hochstein, however, cautioned that “a broad war with Lebanon could increase risks and would not guarantee the return of captives,” indicating the potential for the conflict to escalate into a prolonged regional war.
Meanwhile, analysts believe that military action alone will not be enough to deter Hezbollah and return Israelis to the north. The Israel Hayom quoted U.S. Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew, who said, “We are working to reach agreements that would prevent a conflict neither side wants,” stressing that “calm in Gaza may prevent a broader war in the north.”
French Ambassador Frédéric Jorneis also warned that “a war with Lebanon would be devastating for the region and unaffordable, damaging Israel as well.”
Netanyahu’s Political Agenda
According to many analyses, Netanyahu seeks to capitalize on the expansion of the current war on the northern front with Lebanon to serve political goals that will prolong his stay in power. He is focusing on a seemingly elusive objective: returning Israelis to the north.
Netanyahu is trying to appeal to the Israeli public by emphasizing the restoration of stability in the north as one of the main objectives of the war, despite knowing the difficulty of achieving this under the current military and political circumstances.
A poll conducted by Direct Polls showed that 71% of Israelis support launching an immediate war on the northern front, while 18% oppose it. This broad popular support for military action in the north presents Netanyahu with an opportunity to strengthen his shaky political position.
At the same time, a report in Haaretz highlighted that 100,000 Israelis had been displaced from their homes in the north, creating public pressure on the occupation leaders to find a solution. However, they are far from reaching a diplomatic resolution that could lead to a ceasefire, as Defense Minister Gallant indicated.
Without a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah remains committed to confronting the Israeli occupation forces by firing from Lebanon.
The escalation of military operations in Lebanon and Syria, evidenced by special Israeli forces’ raids, indicates a shift in the center of the war from Gaza to the north.
Can the Israeli Army Defeat Hezbollah?
According to former Israeli General Yitzhak Brick, in an article published by Haaretz, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s statements about the possibility of launching a ground attack on Hezbollah in the near future are concerning.
Brick pointed out that the Israeli occupation army, which is struggling to achieve its objectives in the ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza, lacks the capacity to secure a decisive victory over Hezbollah, an organization far stronger than Hamas.
Brick’s analysis suggests that Israeli army leaders, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and Defense Minister Gallant, have failed to achieve the main goals of the Gaza war, such as destroying Hamas and liberating captives.
In contrast, Hamas continues to maintain full control over the Gaza Strip, including its network of tunnels, while the ongoing fighting in Gaza is draining Israel’s military capabilities, negatively impacting its economy, international relations, and weakening Israeli society’s resilience.
Brick believes that the Israeli occupation army, which has seen a significant decline in its ground forces over the past 20 years, lacks the necessary manpower to conduct a long-term ground offensive in Lebanon.
The army has reduced its ground forces by 66% compared to two decades ago, meaning it lacks sufficient troops to hold any territory it may occupy for a long time. This would eventually force it to withdraw, as happened in Gaza, and is likely to happen if a ground attack is launched in Lebanon.
