The ceasefire talks on Gaza, set to take place on Thursday, August 15, 2024, are gaining momentum as both American and Israeli officials believe that reaching an agreement could delay potential retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah following the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr.
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the U.S. administration plans to present a new proposal at the Doha summit and apply significant pressure on all parties to immediately agree to the outlined terms.
For the Americans, this summit is seen as the “last chance.” All eyes are on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to see if he will grant his negotiating team expanded authority before leaving for Doha to finalize a deal.
Reaching an agreement at the Doha summit could spare Israel from an Iranian attack.
Although Tehran has neither confirmed nor denied its intentions, Reuters cited Iranian sources suggesting that Iran would launch an attack immediately if the Gaza talks fail or if Israel appears to be stalling in the negotiations. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has also tied the halting of his group’s operations in northern Israel to the cessation of the war on Gaza.
In a press statement, U.S. President Joe Biden expressed hope that Iran would refrain from attacking Israel if a ceasefire in Gaza is reached within the coming days.
The White House is deeply concerned that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah on Israel could derail the negotiations and kill any potential agreement, according to the American website Axios.
American officials told Axios that while U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has made military preparations for an attack on Israel, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has yet to issue a final order to execute the attack.
Israeli military analyst Amos Harel noted that linking the Gaza ceasefire agreement to the response to the assassinations in Tehran and Beirut makes Thursday’s Doha summit even more critical.
Harel pointed out that the Iranian threat, coming just before the resumption of negotiations in Qatar, raises the possibility of halting the attack before it begins, thereby bolstering American efforts to reach an agreement.
This situation raises questions about whether there is a “back channel” between Washington and Tehran. At the same time, Netanyahu may interpret this as an attempt to force him to accept terms he finds difficult, according to the Israeli military analyst.
This comes as the U.S. has deployed its forces in the Middle East, signaling its readiness to assist Israel if it comes under attack. However, the stakes are now higher and more dangerous than they were in April, making the recent moves by Washington and Tehran critical to the success or failure of the Doha summit talks.
Regarding the northern front, Harel identified two possible outcomes:
First, a ceasefire in Gaza could positively impact the northern front, keeping Hezbollah fighters away from the border.
Second, a full-scale war could lead to significant losses, but the government lacks a clear policy on the northern front, other than buying time, as Netanyahu remains focused on Gaza.
Will Netanyahu Grant His Negotiating Team Expanded Authority?
On another front, the obstacles Netanyahu places in the way of a Gaza ceasefire are another factor making the Doha summit negotiations “crucial.” Hamas, in response to the mediators’ tripartite statement, has demanded they present a plan to implement what they proposed to the movement, asserting that it will not entertain any new proposals.
The New York Times revealed that Israel introduced five new conditions in the talks held at the end of last month, the most notable being the continued presence of Israeli forces in the Philadelphi Corridor and the screening of Palestinians returning from the southern to the northern part of Gaza—details not included in the proposal that Hamas had agreed to negotiate.
Although mediating countries and relevant Israeli authorities have already made it clear that the Doha summit is the last chance, the debate over “authority” between Netanyahu and the negotiating team continues.
Efforts to bridge the gaps persist, yet the central question remains: how much authority will the team be granted at this decisive summit? Channel 12 Israel reports.
The Israeli channel quoted a political official as saying that Netanyahu is holding firm on the conditions he set, particularly those concerning the monitoring of Palestinian militants’ movements from the southern to the northern part of Gaza—a sensitive point, as all security agency heads have indicated that there is currently no mechanism to allow for such monitoring.
According to the Israeli official, the dilemma this time is not just between Israel and Hamas; the stakes have risen, and if Tel Aviv is perceived as having sabotaged the negotiations, it could also face a direct confrontation with Iran.
Negotiating team officials emphasize that without expanded authority, there is no point in traveling.
