An American researcher emphasized that Israel’s greatest threat on its northern front with Lebanon isn’t just Hezbollah’s missile arsenal but the possibility of a ground incursion by the group, similar to what the Palestinian resistance did in Gaza on October 7th.
Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow at the “Fromer-Wexler Fellowship Program,” noted that Hezbollah, with its 30,000-strong force, has been massing ground troops along the Israeli border, preventing evacuated Israelis from returning and increasing the risk of a war that both sides prefer to delay for now.
In an article published by the Los Angeles Times and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Levitt explained that Hezbollah and Israel are closer to a full-scale war than they have been since 2006, following nearly ten months of ongoing cross-border rocket and drone attacks.
However, the more significant threat than Hezbollah’s missile arsenal is the potential for a ground incursion into Israel, similar to the events of October 7th, according to Levitt.
The article highlighted rising tensions between the two sides since the “Majdal Shams” incident in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and the subsequent assassination of senior Hezbollah military leader Fouad Shukr in a raid on Beirut’s southern suburbs, as well as the assassination of elected Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
“The region is now in a state of anticipation, awaiting potential retaliatory actions from Iran, Hezbollah, and possibly other Iranian proxies, putting it at risk of escalation into a broader war,” the article noted.
Despite this, Levitt suggested there is hope for de-escalation, as the factors that have prevented Hezbollah from opening a full-scale second front against Israel since October still exist.
He explained that Hezbollah’s buildup along the Lebanese border with Israel has prevented settlers, who were evacuated over the past year, from returning to their homes in the north.
Levitt pointed out that northern settlers are beginning to realize how close they came to disaster on October 7th. On that day, while Hamas fighters breached the southern border, only two Israeli battalions, totaling about 600 soldiers, were stationed to defend the entire northern border. Today, around 40 battalions guard that border, but maintaining such a deployment long-term is challenging.
Israeli officials are under immense pressure to return settlers to the areas Hezbollah effectively evacuated over the past year, according to the article.
According to Levitt, U.S. diplomatic efforts have focused on pushing Hezbollah to withdraw its forces at least 10 kilometers from the border. This would place most of Hezbollah’s missiles out of range and significantly reduce the likelihood of a surprise attack similar to October 7th.
Levitt concluded that the political spectrum in Israel agrees they can no longer live under the constant threat of weapons, whether from the south or the north. This means Israel will eventually have to confront both Hezbollah’s missile stockpile and its 30,000-strong force.
However, Levitt warned that this course of action could likely drag Israel into a war that most Israelis and Lebanese do not want.
