While Israel offered a glimmer of hope on Thursday by indicating it would consider the latest draft of a ceasefire proposal from Hamas, the situation in Gaza may still be far from resolution.
Conversely, in the days leading up to Hamas’ response, Israel spoke of its “next phase”—a supposedly lower-intensity conflict that would maintain Israeli soldiers on the ground, focusing on continued fighting over the release of the remaining Israeli captives.
The Israeli government has maintained that fighting will not cease until Hamas is “fully defeated.” However, with Hamas fighters and other Palestinian factions reappearing in parts of Gaza where Israel had previously claimed victory, a definitive end to the conflict seems elusive.
This indicates there is no clear end to Israel’s presence in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a motive to prolong the conflict, Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.
Other analysts share this view.
“The ongoing genocide, destruction of Gaza, starvation of Palestinians, and devastation of livelihoods, coupled with Israel’s strategic and security considerations, indicate a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip with the goal of displacing Palestinians,” Ihab Maharmeh of the Doha Institute said.
Objectives
In the months preceding Israel’s land assault on Rafah, a haven for over a million displaced Palestinians, political pressure had mounted on Netanyahu and his government through global protests, including many on U.S. college campuses.
On May 9, U.S. President Joe Biden even suggested withholding bomb deliveries to Israel if it invaded Rafah.
Yet, Israel’s operation in Rafah—portrayed as limited—proceeded without resistance from the Biden administration as the Israeli army secured the Philadelphi Corridor separating Gaza and Egypt. Ceasefire talks have since stalled, and Netanyahu’s domestic approval ratings have improved.
With increased manoeuvrability, Netanyahu’s government might now be working towards different objectives.
“Many of us believe [Israel’s] real goal is an indefinite Israeli presence and takeover [of Gaza] and the eradication of Palestinian presence there,” Rahman said.
Israel aims to “ethnically cleanse as many Palestinians as possible from Gaza. Israel has learned that Palestinian resistance stems not from their governance nor the identity and orientation of the ruling group but rather from the existence of a unified Palestinian demographic,” Hani Awad of the Doha Institute said.
While some on the far right, including members of the government, advocate for the full takeover and settlement of Gaza, Netanyahu has insisted that this is not his position.
However, by forcibly establishing a “buffer zone” around Gaza’s perimeter and along a corridor through its center, Israel is reshaping the enclave’s reality.
“My long-standing analysis is that Israel’s main goal is to make Gaza resemble the West Bank [by managing] the security and military situation rather than focusing on civil matters,” Eyal Lurie-Pardes of the Middle East Institute told Al Jazeera.
“The concept behind ‘phase three’ is that Israel doesn’t need a full brigade inside a city. Think of it like the West Bank: they are stationed outside the central population but always ready to make small incursions or [launch] operations.”
Israel’s dilemma
Netanyahu has made his opposition to a Palestinian state clear. However, his alternative proposals have not garnered much approval from the international community.
In recent months, Netanyahu has suggested various scenarios for Gaza’s future, including having Arab states—specifically Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates—assist in rebuilding and managing the enclave.
Biden has stated that Arab states are willing to help rebuild Gaza, but there is little evidence they are interested in managing its daily affairs.
The UAE “refuses to be drawn into any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip,” UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed tweeted in May. He also stated that the UAE is not willing to “participate in the civil administration of the Gaza Strip, which is under Israeli occupation.”
Even if Netanyahu were to succumb to the long-simmering internal opposition against him, there is no guarantee that Israeli state policy would change.
“This stance is not limited to Netanyahu’s coalition but represents the position of the entire Israeli establishment, particularly the military,” Awad said.
Analysts argue that Netanyahu’s ambitions are echoed within Israel’s political mainstream, including his main political rival, Benny Gantz, and his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who recently met with U.S. officials during visits to Washington.
“Even if Netanyahu’s government is replaced, Israel faces a dilemma: it cannot withdraw militarily from the Gaza Strip due to its unwillingness or inability to address the political context of the Palestinians,” Rahman said.
Israel and the international community are unwilling “to return governance or control to Hamas, but why would Arab states and the international community rebuild, govern, and police [Gaza] on Israel’s behalf after what they did and without a long-term political resolution?”
What would it take to withdraw?
Israeli media recently reported that the military was moving troops towards the Lebanese border in anticipation of an expanded conflict there.
However, there is no indication of a complete military withdrawal, which would require an extraordinary event.
“Israel’s military strategy aims to make these bases permanent, meaning the war will continue until Israel is either militarily defeated or compelled by the U.S. to withdraw,” Awad said.
“The likelihood of either scenario is uncertain and largely depends on the outcomes of the U.S. elections and the willingness of the next American president to take action.”
Absent a significant shift in U.S. policy or an unexpected defeat in Gaza, Israel’s military presence in Gaza is likely to persist. There is no end to the conflict in sight.
“Israel has no other plan,” Rahman said.
