Officials in the Israeli security establishment estimate that a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon is inevitable, given the evacuation of northern settlements and the political paralysis affecting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and military leaders. But the question remains: who will attack first? What will the first day of the expected war look like? And what about the mechanism for ending the conflict?
Amir Bohbot, the security commentator and military correspondent for the Hebrew website “Walla News,” states that senior officials in the security establishment claim it “was a mistake to evacuate such a large number of northern settlements at the start of the war; it would have been sufficient to evacuate only the settlements adjacent to the border fence” due to fears of a scenario similar to the attack on October 7 on the Lebanese border.
To return the settlers to the north, there are three main options: a political settlement that has reached a dead end, establishing a security buffer zone on Lebanese territory under ground maneuvers, and a full-scale war on the Lebanese state. Sources in the Israeli security apparatus told “Walla News” that given the political and security reality, war is inevitable despite Iranian threats to join the conflict.
The security and political reality imposes war on Israel in Lebanon… Who will lead it?
Israeli commentator Bohbot says there is a “highly vigilant professional discourse” within the security establishment on how Israel should deal with Hezbollah – with questions in the background: whether through a political settlement, a full-scale war, or continued attrition without returning northern residents to their homes.
There are differing opinions regarding U.S. warnings that Israel could turn the Middle East into a regional war. Therefore, whoever heads the military must believe in the scenario of a broad war against Hezbollah, as everyone knows how the war will start, but not necessarily how it will end.
Regarding Defense Minister Yoav Galant, General Herzi Halevi continues in his position for the duration determined by law, while others in the security and political apparatus estimate he may end his duties before the Jewish holidays.
Who will surprise the other… Hezbollah or Israel?
According to the “Walla” correspondent, the fact that Hezbollah refuses “political settlement” while continuing to launch rockets, drones, and attacks on the Israeli home front only strengthens the assessments in Israel that war with Lebanon is a matter of time. The question now is whether Israel will surprise Hezbollah or vice versa.
In the “Second Lebanon War” in 2006, the Israeli Air Force carried out an operation known as “Operation Dawn,” during which it destroyed a group of medium-range rockets that were the main part of Hezbollah’s firepower, causing the party to “kneel” on the first day of the war, according to Bohbot.
What does a war on Lebanon at this time mean for the Americans?
The Hebrew website notes that the televised debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Israel is a component of the U.S. presidential election system, thus becoming an important consideration in the Israeli political decision-making process on whether to wage war in Lebanon. The influence extends to the electoral system, not just due to Israel’s reliance on U.S. armament and legitimacy.
Will the Israeli political level wait for the day after the U.S. elections? Another significant date for Israel is Netanyahu’s historic speech in Congress (he will be the first foreign diplomat to deliver it for the fourth time). Will Netanyahu seize a historic opportunity, or will he harness the American public to expand Israeli legitimacy for waging war on Hezbollah and Iran, and to restore security to the northern part of Israel?
What will the first day of the expected war look like?
According to Bohbot, the first day will mainly depend on whether Israel is drawn into the war or initiates it by surprise. Since Hezbollah possesses significant strategic systems, including ballistic missiles, precision missiles, and a very wide range of drones, the Israeli military will need to respond with great force and precision in the early hours – before Hezbollah regains its composure and launches them deep into Israeli territory.
To illustrate the extent of the Israeli military’s preparedness for daily deterioration, it is worth noting that there is a nightly situation assessment between the Air Force Commander, Major General Tomer Bar, and the Northern Command Commander, where they review the scope of targets, armament, and readiness of both sides, and attack scenarios to the extent of starting a war without intelligence information. According to Bohbot, this indicates a very high level of readiness, in addition to the readiness of ground forces, some in the north and some that will move quickly from the south to the north, as described by the Israeli commentator.
How will the war end?
If war breaks out, whether initiated by Israel or not, the political level will need to ask itself whether a security buffer zone should be established through ground and air maneuvers from the Israeli-Lebanese border to prevent rockets and anti-tank shells from reaching there and firing on northern settlements or working to expel Hezbollah forces.
Unlike the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon has an armed resistance force consisting of tens of thousands of fighters, and Lebanese political elements that could oppose the continuation of the war if it breaks out, incorporating regional political elements that could tie Nasrallah’s hands.
Therefore, it is again better to determine what Israel wants and whether it will be content with disarming the armed elements of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon or preventing the establishment of infrastructure supporting an attack similar to what happened on October 7.
