American media outlets have revealed substantial concessions that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will offer in exchange for a defense treaty with the United States, including normalization with Israel and placing Saudi airspace under Washington’s control.
The American newspaper, The Wall Street Journal, cited American and Saudi officials stating that the Biden administration is on the verge of finalizing a treaty with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that would bind the United States to assist in defending the Gulf state as part of a long deal to promote diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Israel.
However, the success of the diplomatic effort depends on Israel’s commitment to a separate Palestinian state and an immediate end to the war in Gaza, an unlikely proposition amidst months of unproductive ceasefire talks and an Israeli airstrike over the weekend.
The United States aims to provide an opportunity for Israeli leaders to achieve their long-awaited goal of establishing normal relations with Saudi Arabia, thereby opening the door to greater acceptance in the Arab and Islamic worlds.
In return, Israel must support a credible path towards a two-state solution with the Palestinians, a stance opposed by the current Israeli government and much of the public in the country.
Diplomatic pressure for a defense agreement with Riyadh represents a significant turnaround for President Biden, who pledged as a candidate to treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah and make it pay for the assassination of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a U.S. resident.
The newspaper mentioned that Biden is now on the verge of an official commitment to protect the oil-rich monarchy, which is charting an ambitious path for economic and social development while continuing to suppress dissent.
Aaron David Miller, a former American peace negotiator now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based research center, said, “This will be the first time the United States has entered into a mutual defense agreement carrying the force of law since the 1960 review of the treaty between the United States and Japan, and the first time it has entered into such an agreement with an autocratic state.”
The security alliance is expected to elevate Saudi Arabia’s regional status and bolster American military presence in the Middle East, where tensions have escalated since the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza.
The deal is also expected to bolster Saudi Arabia’s security, risking increased tensions with Iran, which competes for regional dominance with Saudi Arabia and deepens its ties with Russia.
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said last month that Israel’s long-term security depends on its regional integration and natural relations with Arab states, including Saudi Arabia.
Sullivan told reporters, “We must not miss a historic opportunity to achieve a secure Israel, surrounded by strong regional partners, providing a robust front to deter aggression and support regional stability.” “We are pursuing this vision every day.”
The treaty, known as the Strategic Alliance Agreement, must receive a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate as required by the Constitution. It is unlikely to garner enough support from lawmakers without being tied to Saudi normalization of relations with Israel.
Before the Saudis do so, however, they want to see an end to the war in Gaza and what they call irreversible steps toward establishing a Palestinian state within several years. Israeli opposition to a two-state solution could prove to be a formidable obstacle.
The draft treaty is loosely modeled after Washington’s mutual security agreement with Japan, according to American and Saudi officials.
In exchange for U.S. commitment to help defend Saudi Arabia if attacked, it will grant Washington access to Saudi territory and airspace to protect U.S. interests and regional partners.
Officials said it also aims to bring Riyadh closer to Washington by banning China from building bases in the kingdom or pursuing security cooperation with Riyadh.
The Saudi treaty will make it the only Arab state with an official U.S. defense treaty.
While Israel is not a party to the treaty, U.S. policy has long focused on assurances to help it maintain “qualitative military edge” in the region, enshrined in law in 2008.
U.S. security commitment to Israel was demonstrated in April when the United States led a multinational response to protect Israel from a major Iranian drone and missile attack.
On a broader scale, Turkey’s membership in NATO provides a stronger mutual defense commitment. Seven other Arab states are key non-NATO allies, a position that provides some U.S. defense and security benefits but is largely symbolic and not legally binding.
Johnathon Panikoff, a former senior U.S. intelligence official now at the Atlantic Council research center, said the massive deal, including a U.S.-Saudi security alliance and Saudi-Israeli normalization, would represent a geostrategic victory for Washington, with the potential to reshape historical alliances in the Middle East.
He added that by ensuring greater Saudi ties to the United States in terms of security, technology, and long-term economic and trade efforts, it would also “disrupt Beijing’s efforts to make progress in the region and find additional allies willing to support its departure from the liberal international order led by the United States.”
The broader deal, but not the treaty, is expected to include U.S. support for developing a Saudi civilian nuclear program with uranium enrichment, another highly sensitive issue needing resolution.
Biden administration efforts to promote normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia were ongoing long before Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, which the president and some Middle East experts say aims to derail this process.
Talks paused for a period after the outbreak of the Gaza war but resumed thereafter. A breakthrough in the coming months would present Biden with a major foreign policy victory ahead of the presidential elections, where his support for Israel in the Gaza war garnered support from his democratic base.
Officials said treaty drafting was nearing completion last month when Sullivan and other top U.S. officials met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, reaching a conceptual agreement on most provisions.
A parallel defense cooperation agreement is also being drafted, which can be enacted by executive order, to bolster arms sales, intelligence sharing, and strategic planning for common threats including terrorism and Iran.
While a ceasefire is not an official requirement for advancing normalization, U.S. and Saudi officials say it is practically impossible to achieve the broader deal without one.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday that the United States continues to press for a ceasefire agreement following the Israeli hostage rescue mission and that Hamas is now the main obstacle to a ceasefire agreement.
Blinken said, “The only thing standing in the way of achieving this ceasefire is Hamas.” “The time has come to accept the deal.”
Hamas insists that any peace agreement in Gaza must include a permanent ceasefire, a position publicly opposed by Netanyahu.
The U.S.-Saudi partnership has long focused on oil and security, including counterterrorism efforts against al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, and deploying half a million U.S. troops to the kingdom in 1990 to repel Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait and defend Saudi oil fields.
The relationship has also suffered several recent rifts, including the 9/11 terrorist attacks, in which 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudis, and Khashoggi’s killing in 2018 by Saudi agents.
The official alliance is expected to end ongoing debates in Washington and Riyadh about U.S. commitment to Saudi security, bolster the kingdom against competing Iran, and allay Washington’s fears that it may pivot towards China or Russia.
It could also pave the way for an eventual Israeli-Saudi alliance against Tehran and solidify America’s presence in the Middle East, even as successive administrations focus more on Asia.
The Pentagon has increasingly participated in treaty negotiations over the past few months as talks with Riyadh near completion. U.S. officials have also briefed
