President Biden’s announcement of a roadmap for ending the war on the Gaza Strip marks a speech carrying many messages to various parties and constitutes a clear American announcement transitioning from a phase of supporting and managing the war to a phase of necessity to actually end it. This represents a shift in the American stance.
The messages included in Biden’s speech targeted several parties, which can be summarized in three main directions: the first aimed at Benjamin Netanyahu, the second at Israeli society, and the third of importance to the entire world.
The first message, and what the announcement of the war-ending plan entailed, was intended to end Netanyahu’s maneuvers and corner him to ensure no manipulation of the agreement, as occurred in the previous agreement approved by Hamas.
As for the second message, it targeted the Israeli society in rebellion against Netanyahu, pressuring him to make a prisoner exchange deal. It emphasized that this is the last chance to stop the war and the possibility of reaching a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas. The third message targeted the world, indicating that there is an American commitment this time to monitor and ensure the implementation of the agreement.
It is clear that the content of the roadmap to end the war is the result of extensive discussions between Israel, America, and other international parties who see this roadmap as the most appropriate timing to end the war on the Gaza Strip. It solidifies an American conviction of the impossibility of eliminating Hamas and the resistance factions in the Israeli manner, especially with increasing American concerns about Israel’s increasing isolation globally if this war continues without a clear strategy or objectives.
What is notable in the announcement is that Biden’s speech fully adopts the demands of Palestinian resistance. It speaks clearly about a comprehensive cessation of the war, the withdrawal of occupation forces from Gaza, the return of displaced persons, and a clear commitment to reconstruction. This announcement is a victory for the resistance and a defeat for Israel.
A question that is often raised these days: Will the American initiative succeed in imposing a solution this time to end the war in Gaza?
In principle, Hamas’ welcome of Biden’s initiative and any initiatives that ensure an end to aggression against the Palestinian people, coupled with Israel not rejecting it, indicates an increased likelihood of success in the efforts to stop the war this time. Despite the challenges within Israel, and perhaps reservations Hamas might express about the proposal, ensuring Israel’s commitment and precise implementation of any agreement remains crucial.
The timing of announcing the roadmap by President Biden suggests it as an Israeli proposal primarily aimed at saving Israel from the collapse resulting from the Gaza war, trying to save Israel before the dissolution of the war cabinet in the coming days and its entry into potentially damaging conflicts. It also senses the increased risks that could further isolate Israel globally and realizes the strategic damage that could affect American interests in the Middle East.
Though Biden’s announcement carries a clear American vision to end the war, part of its content serves two main objectives: one related to Biden’s upcoming election campaign and the other to capitalize on what was issued against former President Donald Trump as a political victory in the upcoming election battle.
Based on the broad outlines of the roadmap announced by President Biden, the possibility of Israeli approval of the deal is likely, owing to various reasons. Among them are the rulings of the International Court of Justice and their repercussions on Netanyahu and his generals, the deadline given by Benny Gantz to Netanyahu to withdraw from the war council due to unclear war objectives, the increase in protests calling for a prisoner exchange deal within Israel, ongoing protests in American universities affecting the upcoming presidential elections, Netanyahu’s full-scale invasion of Rafah, indicating a loss of hope in finding prisoners and a further failure in achieving objectives other than killing and destruction.
Two strategic goals are in favor of America. President Biden needs more than ever to improve his image in the upcoming presidential elections by initiating the end of the war. Additionally, behind this roadmap lies the intention to push forward the normalization issue between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and to launch a political settlement to cool down the situation in the region after eight hot months of confrontation with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Noteworthy observations in the proposal include Netanyahu’s retreat from some of his conditions he insisted on during the war period, such as declaring the elimination of Hamas. The initiative only states Hamas’s inability to carry out a new October 7th, as well as the clause to eliminate Hamas capabilities rather than Hamas itself, which signifies a retreat by all parties.
This time, President Biden pushes towards the success of the initiative by mobilizing all his political and diplomatic tools and allies to save Israel on one hand and save himself by explicitly declaring to improve his image in the presidential elections on the other. It’s time for elections, and they don’t want anything to spoil it.
There is clear American-Israeli consensus on allowing Netanyahu to save face after his global image has become the most dangerous war criminal in history. His isolation has increased, and failure haunts the leaders and officers of his army. According to the latest opinion polls in Israel published by “Yedioth Ahronoth,” officers’ retirement requests from the army doubled during the war. This constitutes a significant shock for Israeli occupation army leaders. Thus, the dark image in Israel solidifies that the Gaza war is destructive to Israel first and foremost. It’s not just an ordinary event; it has significant repercussions in the region. The only remaining path for Netanyahu is either to engage in a comprehensive deal or inevitable end, accompanied by an inevitable defeat for Israel and its defeated army in Gaza.
