The British magazine, Economist, says a sense of drama surrounds the Israeli military campaign, which resumed in areas like the Zeytoun neighborhood or Jabalia in northern Gaza, coinciding with the fighting in Rafah. The Israeli army fought there last year, then returned for a two-week offensive in February, and now returns for the third time, perhaps not the last, trapping itself in a cycle of death in Gaza.
The Israeli military is caught in a cycle of death in Gaza
The two military campaigns say a lot about Israel’s faltering military effort in the sands of Gaza. The Economist says the talk of Rafah as the last Hamas stronghold is greatly exaggerated, as Hamas fighters vanish like ghosts. The movement tries to reaffirm its control over wide parts of Gaza, and after eight months of war, Israel has no plan to prevent it.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to discuss post-war arrangements caused US President Joe Biden’s displeasure, and increasingly, his generals’ as well. Israel began its incursion into Rafah on May 6th, dropping leaflets urging residents to evacuate areas on the city’s outskirts. The forces moved slowly, first seizing control of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza and several kilometres of land along the border. By May 14th, there were reports of Israeli tanks in residential neighbourhoods east of Rafah, though they remained at a distance from the city centre.
For Israel, the borders hold strategic value. For decades, the area has been riddled with tunnels, which Hamas used to smuggle weapons, construction materials, and other supplies into Gaza under a suffocating blockade. Israel believes there are still tunnels despite Egypt’s tightening, and cutting off the movement’s supply lines is important, though it also risks a crisis with neighbouring Egypt, which was angered by Israel’s failure to give notice before seizing the crossing.
Gang warfare in Rafah and Jabalia
However, for many Israeli politicians, the real focus of the attack on Rafah is Hamas itself. The Israeli army claims that 19 out of 24 battalions have been “dismantled” (these claims are subject to interpretation), and four of them are still intact in Rafah. These battalions have gained symbolic importance for some Israeli officials: Netanyahu has been talking about them for months.
With the start of the Israeli attack, army officials believe that Hamas has already transferred part of its forces elsewhere. A battalion will be left in Rafah to attack the Israeli Defense Forces, but there won’t be a dramatic confrontation: like most guerrilla warfare movements, Hamas will want to avoid direct conflict with a better-armed enemy while wearing down the Israeli army.
Instead, it attacks Israel in other places as well, and in recent days, Hamas has targeted the Netsarim corridor, a line of former Israeli settlements that ran across the Gaza Strip; it launched rockets at a military base in Kerem Abu Salam; and it fired a barrage of rockets at Sderot and Ashkelon in southern Israel, also delivering deadly blows to the Israeli army in Jabalia in northern Gaza, indicating that the movement still enjoys strength and tactical flexibility on the battlefield.
The Qassam Brigades are trying to maintain their strength and positioning in northern Gaza, repelling Israeli incursions that are faltering on multiple fronts, attempting to encircle northern areas and penetrate Jabalia, where around 200,000 civilians still refuse to evacuate.
Biden couldn’t maintain his threats to cut military support to Israel
Strategists often talk about the “clear and hold” approach in counterinsurgency: clearing an area of militants, holding onto the gains, and building an alternative. Israel says it’s only trying to do the first part. Except for the Netsarim corridor, there were almost no Israeli forces in Gaza for the past two months, creating a vacuum that Hamas inevitably tried to fill and prepare to strike at the Israelis now trapped in the cycle of death.
Two weeks ago, Biden delayed a shipment of 3,500 precision-guided bombs destined for Israel. In an interview on May 8th, he threatened to go further, saying he would cut off bomb and artillery shell supplies if Israel continued its attack on Rafah. Biden’s words surprised Israelis, but a week later, his administration notified Congress that it was providing a $1 billion shipment of military aid, including tank shells and artillery rounds. However, this caused a stir in Washington, where Republicans and some Democrats accused him of restraining Israel’s hands in Rafah.
However, Biden never demanded Israel to refrain from attacking the city harbouring tens of thousands of displaced persons, contenting himself with a plan to evacuate civilians to areas with sufficient humanitarian aid. The evacuation is now underway: about 600,000 Palestinians have fled Rafah this month under the aerial bombardment that killed hundreds of civilians. It hasn’t been easy at all. Some Palestinians headed to the buffer zone, a barren coastal strip Israel classified as a “humanitarian area”. Others returned to cities further north, like Khan Yunis and Deir al-Balah, which had already endured months of fighting.
New arrivals describe inhumane conditions, with tents crowded on sand dunes, little food and water, and no sanitation infrastructure. After Israel seized the Rafah crossing earlier this month, Egypt stopped aid deliveries. The Kerem Abu Salam crossing has been repeatedly closed.
In the week starting May 6th, only six trucks carrying aid entered southern Gaza. Relief workers say supplies are dwindling throughout the south with hundreds of thousands of people moving, not the organized evacuation Biden urged.
This isn’t the first time Netanyahu has ignored Biden’s demands. He has refused to talk about the “day after” in Gaza, despite American pleas. Americans have touted their own plan, which starts with Israeli commitment to allow the Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza. From there, they hope to mediate a tripartite agreement in which Saudi Arabia normalizes relations with Israel. This could unleash Arab support for reconstruction and resume the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians.
Israel will wage an endless war with Hamas
In the end, saying all this is easier than doing it: it’s hard to imagine, for example, that the weak and corrupt Palestinian Authority can effectively govern Gaza. Netanyahu ruled out the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza and spent months equating it with Hamas. His far-right allies want to rebuild the Jewish settlements Israel dismantled in 2005. Although Netanyahu doesn’t share this goal, he doesn’t want to upset them by promising Palestinian control over Gaza. Instead, he allowed chaos to prevail in the region and involved the army in the sands of Gaza.
Israeli generals have been grumbling about this for months. At a press conference on May 14th, Daniel Hagari, an army spokesperson, was asked if the repeated attacks in northern Gaza were a result of the government’s failure to plan for post-war. He said: “There is no doubt that having an alternative to Hamas would pressure them, but this is a political level issue.” For many Israelis, his words seemed like a rare rebuke of Netanyahu’s policy.
The next day, Defense Minister Yoav Galant warned that Israel might be headed towards long-term military rule in Gaza. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of the dangers of leaving the void for Hamas, as he put it; the movement can rebuild itself every time.
The Israeli Defense Forces pushed for a major ground assault in October, fully aware that Netanyahu would be averse to talk of post-war diplomacy. America supported this assault. They realized too late what should have been clear months ago: without a plan to secure and govern Gaza, Israel will wage an endless war with Hamas, which won’t surrender easily.
